Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Indianapolis got points against Baltimore last week, and it wasn't competitive, with the Colts falling by 18 points despite committing two turnovers of their own. That's a tough result to look past, but the Colts get a bigger cushion tonight, and Kansas City, while impressive in its own opener, beat a Denver team that turned the ball over twice and never threatened. Andy Reid's operation controlled that game for nearly 34 minutes and converted more than half its third downs, real strengths Indianapolis's defense will have to answer. But a Colts team that already knows what a bad night looks like has a real incentive to clean up the giveaways that turned a competitive spot into a blowout last week, and the number here is generous enough that Indianapolis doesn't need to be good, just not as careless as it was seven days ago. Indianapolis is the bet with the points tonight.

Indianapolis is unbeaten at home but 2-2 on the road. They come off a bye week after beating the Falcons in Germany, 31-25 in overtime. This will be their third straight away from home, including a 27-20 loss at Pittsburgh, where they turned it over six times. QB Daniel Jones has six touchdowns and six interceptions in his five games away from home (counting the European game) and has been limited in practice this week with a calf injury. The Colts are on a 5-8 straight-up run on the road. Kansas City has a great urgency for a strong effort after losing the last two games, both on the road, at Buffalo (28-21) and Denver (22-19). Teammates describe QB Patrick Mahomes (18 TDs, 6 INTs) as being focused and locked in this week, demanding sharper practices and more clarity in meetings. "We've got a sour taste in our mouth about the Denver game," added one player. Kansas City has won 12 of its last 13 at Arrowhead. Given the wagering value on the home team to win, I'm backing Kansas City on the moneyline. 

The oddsmakers have hung a high posted total for this matchup even though Indianapolis has gone UNDER in six of its last eight games following its 21-7 win at Houston. Kansas City ended the regular season with a 35-3 domination of Oakland and it went UNDER by 14.5 points. The Colts have gone UNDER in nine of their last 10 versus teams with winning records and five of their last six against AFC teams. Also, the UNDER is 13-6 in the Colts' last 19 playoff games and 9-4 their last 13 road games overall. The Chiefs have a 49-22-1 UNDER record their last 72 home games.  Kansas City is 7-1 at home this season and the Colts are 5-4 on the road. Patrick Mahomes has passed for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions and a 66.0 completion percentage. Tyreek Hill has been his favorite receiver with 87 catches for 1,479 yards and 14 TDs. Andrew Luck is at the top of his game and has thrown for 4,593 yards with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. However, the Colts do have road losses at the lowly New York Jets and Jacksonville. Andy Reid has been one of the best coaches in NFL history with extra time to prepare with a 17-3 regular season record when following a bye week.  The Colts will keep it relatively close, but go with the Chiefs on the moneyline plus the UNDER.