Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Jacksonville has won six in a row behind QB Trevor Lawrence (26 TDs, 11 INTs), averaging 34.1 points. They come off a 34-20 win at Denver, one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Jaguars are on an 8-4 run OVER the total, including 6-1 OVER on the road. Indianapolis plays its second straight at home, after a 48-27 loss to San Francisco. New QB Philip Rivers threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The defense is 25th in yards allowed, with the Colts on a 5-2 run OVER the total at home. Take Jacksonville/Indianapolis OVER the total.

It's a battle for first place in the AFC South, and Indianapolis will look to bounce back from three close losses in its past four games, including 20-16 to Houston on Sunday, when the Colts were held to fewer than 20 points for the first time this season. Daniel Jones was 14 of 27 passing for 201 yards and two TDs while playing through a lower leg injury, although he says it is improving each week. The Colts' defense has been overlooked as they allow 20.8 points per game. Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its past seven games against AFC opponents. Jacksonville is on a three-game win streak, but the last two were against Arizona and Tennessee, who combined for a 4-20 record. The Jaguars have gone UNDER six of their past seven home games, and they are 7-1 UNDER their past eight December games. Curiously, Indianapolis is still the slight favorite on the road even after its recent losses, which suggests the oddsmakers see this matchup differently. Take the Colts and the UNDER.

Indianapolis has been eliminated from playoff contention, having lost six of its past nine games, including a shocking 45-33 defeat at the hands of the hapless New York Giants last week. It ended a 10-game skid for New York, who got 309 passing yards and four TDs from Drew Lock. The Colts are 1-5 ATS after totaling more than 350 yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS as favorites of 3.5-10.0 points. Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS in its past five January games. Jacksonville has won five of six meetings, including 37-34 on Oct. 6. The Jaguars have lost many close games this season, but they did pull off a 20-13 victory over Tennessee on Sunday. Mac Jones finished 15 of 22 for 174 yards and two TDs with no picks. Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 meetings with the Colts, who are disappointed after missing the postseason, while the Jags would like to end on a winning note, and they're getting points. Take the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is searching for its first win and it likely won't get it this week against Indianapolis, which is coming off two impressive wins over Chicago and Pittsburgh after losing close games in its first two games. Joe Flacco did an imitation of what he did last year with Cleveland as he relieved injured starter Anthony Richardson and tossed two TD passes and the Colts beat the Steelers 27-24. Michael Pittman Jr. had six catches for 113 yards for the Colts, who are 17-4 ATS their past 21 games in Week 5. The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in Week 5 and 1-6 ATS and 7-0 UNDER their past seven games as home favorites of 0.5-3.0 points. Jacksonville is 10-1 UNDER as a favorite overall  of 0.5-3.0 points. The Jaguars lost 24-20 to Houston even though the Texans had 12 penalties called against them. Jacksonville led for most of the second half before succumbing to another loss and its third UNDER in four games. Indianapolis is in double revenge after losing both meetings last season and the Jaguars have lost eight straight against AFC opponents. Take the Colts and the UNDER.

Jacksonville is getting progress from QB Trevor Lawrence, but he still has a long way to go. What he has done is cut down on his turnovers. Last year Lawrence threw 13 INTs and so far this year only two. The Jags are still not scoring a lot by the air as Lawrence has just five TD passes on the season. What all these numbers have led to is Jacksonville playing under in 25 of Lawrence's first 41 NFL starts. Indianapolis might be content to run the ball as they have generated 125 or more rushing yards in each of their last four games. This should be a tight game and whoever wins the ground war is going to emerge a healthy 4-2 from this game. I like the UNDER.