Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

Tennessee got closer to getting a victory in interim coach Mike McCoy's third game, covering the 10-point spread while losing 27-20 to the Chargers two weeks ago. The Titans now come out of the bye week with extra time to prepare for the Texans, who come off a miraculous 36-29 win over Jacksonville, and the game went OVER by 27 points. Tennessee has gone OVER three in a row, and the Titans are 5-0-1 OVER their past six home games. Also, the Titans are 5-0 OVER after totaling fewer than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in its past 10 coming off a bye week. Houston has lost three of its four road games this season. Davis Mills is likely to start again as CJ Stroud remains in concussion protocol. The Texans lost safety M.J. Stewart for the season due to a quad injury. Take the Titans and the OVER.

Something has to give as both teams are 0-3, and Houston hasn't earned the right to be a touchdown favorite against anyone. Tennessee is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight games following a double-digit home loss, and the Texans are on a 1-8-2 ATS run in their past 11 September games. The Titans have covered five of their last six games at Houston. The Texans are averaging just 12.7 points per game, and all three have been easy UNDERS as the defense has been adequate. Four of six meetings have gone UNDER, and Houston is 7-3 UNDER in its past 10 home games. The Texans have also stayed UNDER eight in eight of 11 division games. Tennessee is making what could be a pivotal move as head coach Brian Callahan is handing off his play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bo Hardegree. Cam Ward could benefit after he went 23 of 38 for 219 yards and a TD with one interception against the Colts. The UNDER is 9-1-2 in the Texans' past 12 games following a loss, and they have gone UNDER six straight September games. C.J. Stroud has only two TD passes with three interceptions this season. Houston had three turnovers while losing 17-10 to Jacksonville and totaled only 271 yards of offense. Take the Titans and the UNDER.

Houston has clinched the AFC South, and it is locked into the No. 4 seed. Coach DeMeco Ryans says he plans to play the starters only because the team has looked so bad the past two weeks, and he wants to go into the postseason on a more positive note. Still, the Texans looked anything but playoff material, losing 31-2 to Baltimore on Christmas Day while getting outgained 432-211. C.J. Stroud threw for 185 yards with an interception, and Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry had their way with the Texans' defense, with Jackson throwing two TD passes and Henry racking up 147 rushing yards. Tennessee won the first meeting 32-27 as an 8-point underdog, and it held the Texans to just 40 yards rushing on 17 carries. The Texans have problems on the offensive line, averaging 21.8 points per game. Take the Titans.

Since giving up 52 points to Detroit, the Tennessee defense has allowed an average of 22.3 points in the last three games. They're a big underdog but get up to play divisional games, as most teams do. In their only AFC Central battle, they lost 20-17 to the Colts. QB Will Levis has started the last two games with 3 TDs and only one pick. He threw for 295 yards last week against Minnesota. He had a 98-yard score and a 51-yard TD pass that was called back because of an illegal formation penalty. Houston is playing a short week after winning at Dallas on Monday night. The Texans have lost three of five and have played four of their last six on the road. In their previous four games as a favorite of 5 points or more, Houston is 1-2-1 ATS. Play Tennessee. 

Houston is 9-6 UNDER this season and Tennessee is 10-5 UNDER as the Titans score 18.3 points per game compared to 21.9 for the Texans, who likely will get C.J. Stroud back from concussion protocol as he is back at practice. Houston has gone UNDER four of its past six games while averaging only 18.5 points. Tennessee also has two straight UNDERS following a 20-17 loss to Seattle on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill threw for 152 yards for the Titans against the Seahawks, who were held to 58 yards rushing on 20 carries even with Tennessee missing five defensive starters. The Texans had only 250 net yards against Cleveland and they are 5-2 UNDER at home and they and the Titans both are 7-3 UNDER their past 10 games versus AFC South teams. Tennessee is 21-7 UNDER after allowing fewer than 90 yards rushing its previous game and 9-4 UNDER overall following a loss. Play the UNDER as my Game of the Month.