Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Tampa Bay held the Falcons to 69 yards rushing, including just 24 on 12 carries by Bijan Robinson, in its 23-30 win in Week 1. Baker Mayfield threw three TD passes, including a go-ahead 25-yarder with 59 seconds left, as a new offensive coordinator appeared to have no adverse effect on him after Liam Coen went off to Jacksonville. The Buccaneers were outgained 358-260, but the defense came up big when it mattered, and the game went UNDER. The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their past six games after allowing more than 250 yards passing, and they have covered four of five September games. Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in September after losing 14-9 to the Rams while managing just three field goals. The game stayed UNDER by 20.5 points. The Texans are 7-1-2 UNDER following a loss, 10-1-2 UNDER after an ATS loss. Houston's past four September games have gone UNDER. The Texans have lost four of their past six games outright. The Rams outgained Houston 296-265, and C.J. Stroud was 19 of 27 for 188 yards with an interception. The Texans are 1-9 ATS before playing Jacksonville the following week. Take the Buccaneers (take the +3 at negative odds vs. the +2.5 with plus odds) and bet the UNDER.

Tampa Bay lost to Atlanta on a field goal as time expired and then the Buccaneers gave Buffalo all it could handle before losing 24-18 as they were plagued by 11 penalties for 74 yards. If the Buccaneers can clean up those mistakes they are capable of ending a three-game losing streak and Baker Mayfield has been more than adequate this season and he threw for 237 yards with no interceptions against the Bills. Houston lost the battle of first-round draft picks 15-13 against Carolina, which was winless going into the game. Bryce Young threw for 235 yards and a TD for Carolina and C.J. Stroud completed 16 of 24 for 140 yards for the Texans, who had only 229 total yards of offense. The Texans are 0-5 ATS their past five as favorites and 1-6 ATS versus teams with losing records. The Buccaneers have covered five of seven as road underdogs and Houston is 10-21-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 90 yards its previous game. Stroud got off to a good start in his rookie year, but opposing defenses will make adjustments. Take the Buccaneers as a Max Play.

No, you won't see 44-year old star QB Tom Brady in this one, so Tampa Bay's rotation is bad beyond Brady with Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin, and Kyle Trask. That trio has combined for zero TDs, four picks, and eight sacks. The offense has averaged 8.5 points and they have nothing to prove in the meaningless finale after winning it all last season. Houston has had plenty to prove on defense after a poor season with a new coaching staff. The 'D' has been very good (10.5 ppg allowed). And the QB rotation is nothing special with Davis Mills, Jeff Driskel, and Tyrod Taylor, combining for no TDs and one pick so far. Play UNDER the total. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had their biggest win last week since 2009 at New Orleans as a +10-point road dog. This is a franchise that has struggled for a long time, and own just five double-digit dog wins since 1989. The difference could be a stout defense, and the growing presence of rookie QB Jameis Winston. Winston will make youthful mistakes, but as we saw last week, he can make the throws through small windows that hasn't been seen in Tampa Bay for quite awhile. At 0-2, Houston has some issues. They are already without their top running back Arian Foster, and at 0-2 their season could be getting away from them. They have shown very little on either side of the ball to this point. QB Ryan Mallet has been brutal, completing less than 50% of his passes, with a QB rating that is hovering around the 70 mark, and Brian Hoyer has been no better. The running game has generated a woeful 159 yards on 44 attempts at about 3.5 yards per tote. Tampa Bay is underrated at this point, and the TD margin set for this one is going to be a tall order for this Houston team to get over. Take the points on Tampa Bay.