Houston Texans vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

Texans QB Matt Schaub has to be a nutcase. Last week he has set a dubious NFL record by throwing a pick-6 in four consecutive games. The problem is magnified by the fact that Houston has now lost three straight games. Fans are calling for his head and he has to be a bit leery of throwing the ball. I expect a conservative game from him this week as he wants to avoid another pick-6 at all costs. The Texans offense has struggled, but the defense continues to improve under Wade Phillips. Houston is #1 in fewest yards allowed per game at 260.2. That will be problematic for a St. Louis team that has difficulty moving the chains, converting just 29.9% of their third downs, and ranking No. 29 overall in yards gained per contest. That certainly sets the stage for a low-scoring game. The Rams went for over 30 points last week, but that isn't their norm. After doing so, they have followed by playing 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11. In the Gary Kubiak era in Houston, the Texans are 21-10 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.

Want a game in which absolutely no one wants to touch one of the teams? This is it. As of Friday afternoon, a ridiculous 95% of the bets on this game are coming in on the Texans. Heck, St. Louis is 1-12, have lost six in a row and 22 of their last 23 games. They got smashed last game by 40 points with their rookie QB and he's starting again this game. It would take drastic measures to get Joe Public to take the Rams here. But, we're on 'em. Oftentimes when you get a game this apparently lopsided, and a team you couldn't possbly consider touching, that's the team to take. Yes, the Rams are banged-up for sure, but remember that is already reflected in the line. In this case, more than what is justified. The Texans, by virtue of dropping four straight before their home win over Seattle a week ago, are no longer a playoff contender at 6-7. The reason being is that there are only three teams in the AFC with a worse record, so they truly have no chance. Is this team (a losing team) really deserving of laying double-digits on the road? They needed wins for the last month and couldn't get them. Teams in this position often take a conservative approach and find a way to get the win with the least amount of energy expense. That is why home dogs in this range have been moneymakers for years late in the season, posting better than 75% ATS winners. The Texans are also just 1-6 ATS after hanging 30+ on their last opponent. In their history, they are 7-18 ATS off a home win and 6-16 ATS on the road after a win. And, believe it or not, St. Louis isn't quite as ugly as they appear. They aren't a good team, but they have gotten more competitive as the season has gone on. They started the season 2-5 ATS but have since gone 4-2 ATS. I am backing the ugly dog with the points here.

When will everyone figure this out? The Rams are horrible on the road. They are 1-4 SU and ATS this season away from home. Dating back to last year, they are 2-10 SU &
ATS. It doesn't get much worse than that. Both of those ATS wins were as an underdog. Yet today they are a road favorite. Yes, I know - this is Houston. But, St. Louis just can't be backed on the road, especially without their starting QB. St. Louis' defense, ranked 29th, is the real problem. We faded them last week because of that. They gave up 372 yards and 27 first downs to the Cardinals - the CARDINALS! Their hearts are not in it right now either. They have no shot at the division and are likely out of the playoffs and they've got dirty laundry airing about how dysfunctional the team and management really are. And, that was a devastating loss last week. Capers will have his team ready. With him as coach, the Texans are 13-4 ATS after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games and Caper-led teams are 19-4 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Houston was hammered last week but that's a perfect set up here. Home dogs that play on grass that had 40 points scored against them in their last game are 2-1 ATS this season and 69% lifetime. And, teams that lost by 21+ points vs. an opponent that allowed 25+ points two straight games are 2-0 this season and 68% lifetime. The Rams have given up 28+ points in four out of five road games this season. We'll back the home dog here for two stars.