Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

San Francisco has split its last four games after starting 3-0. The 49ers have been dealing with a lot of injuries, down to backup QB Mac Jones (6 TDs, 4 INTs), along with a running game that is 25th in rushing yards while averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. They were beaten in their last road game, 30-19, at Tampa Bay. Jones was sacked six times and had no touchdowns and two interceptions. Houston has a +39 point differential, the fourth-best in the AFC, despite playing four road games and only two at home. QB C.J. Stroud (9 TDs, 4 INTs) leads the offense, while the defense is fourth in yards given up, fourth on third down (32%), and No. 1 in points allowed (14.9 per game). The wagering value is on the home team to win the game. Play Houston on the moneyline. 

It's the second straight road game for San Francisco playing on short rest with just four days of preparation. 49ers backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo is not expected to play. San Francisco is a road favorite, but Coach Kyle Shanahan is 3-5 straight up in Weeks 3 and 4 of the preseason. Houston is home with an extra day to prepare after a 24-20 win at the Rams on Friday. The Texans have plenty to prove after a 4-13 disaster in 2021 and are playing hard for new coach Lovie Smith winning both games. The defense, Lovie's background, is allowing 16.5 ppg. Houston's pass rush has been very good with 11 sacks, 16 total pressures, while the offense is averaging 20.5 points. Houston will play the starters "a lot more" said Smith and note that WR Brandin Cooks, offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, and offensive lineman Justin Britt have yet to play in the preseason. Smith has a winning record covering his 11 preseason finales. That includes winning three of the last four finales, a 22-17 win over Miami, a 28-20 win over Chicago, and a 24-14 victory over the Browns, so back the home dog that is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Buy the hook if you have to get this to +3. Take Houston as a Max Play.

San Francisco opened at home last week and the offense was not in midseason form, averaging just 3.8 yards per rush while going 4-of-10 on third down. The big worry for the 49ers is that six players left with injuries in the first half with the most concerning ones being shoulder injuries to tight end George Kittle and running back Matt Breida. The offense also lost tackle Garry Gilliam (concussion). All the injuries could sideline them for "some time," said coach Kyle Shanahan. Running backs Jerick McKinnon (calf) and Breida are not available this week for practice so they are expected to sign RB Alfred Morris with the depth hurting. They face a Houston team with far more talent and depth on defense than offense. Houston comes off an impressive 17-10 win at Kansas City, allowing 73 yards rushing at just 3.2 yards per carry. This team is strong on the defensive line, while the secondary added star safety Tyrann Mathieu from the Cardinals, cornerback Aaron Colvin from the Jaguars, and rookie safety Justin Reid (third round). Reid's brother is former NFL Pro Bowl safety Eric Reid. The offense is being careful with young star QB Deshaun Watson coming off a serious injury, so the backups are below-average Brandon Weeden and Joe Webb. The 49ers are on a 6-2 run UNDER the total in Week 2 of preseason and this shapes up as a contest with more defense than offense. Back the UNDER in this one.

San Francisco finally has gotten something to smile about with two wins in its last three games. The 49ers won 15-14 at Chicago last week as Robbie Gould, a former Bears kicker, kicked a game-winning 24-yard field goal in the final seconds. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 293 yards in his first start for the 49ers while completing 26-of-37 passes with an interception. Gould accounted for all the scoring, but the Niners have renewed hope with Garoppolo at quarterback as they look to build momentum after outgaining the Bears 388-147 and with Garoppolo converting 10-of-18 third downs. Houston is dealing with a ton of injuries and has lost five of its last six games while allowing an average of 27 points. Tom Savage threw for a career-high 365 yards, but the banged-up offensive line gave up four sacks, and the Texans are 1-6 ATS their last seven games after finishing with at least 250 passing yards their previous game.  Houston is 4-1 OVER its last five home games, and both teams are ranked near the bottom defensively in yards and points allowed per game. Take the 49ers and the OVER.