Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles Point Spread Picks

This game appears to be a mismatch, but there is good value in playing the UNDER as Philadelphia is #3 in the NFL in total yards allowed (298.1 per game) and #4 in scoring defense (16.9 ppg). Houston is second-to-last in yards gained (288.7) while averaging just 16.6 points. The Texans lost 17-10 to Tennessee and it went UNDER by 12.5 points and would have been more if Houston hadn't scored in garbage time in the final minute of the game. The Texans had only 43 net rushing yards and Davis Mills was 17 of 29 for 152 yards with an interception. The Eagles haven't allowed more than 21 points in any of their past six games and they are 57-24 UNDER their past 81 games after scoring at least 30 points their previous game. Philly is also on a run of 16-5 UNDER in their past 21 November games. Houston has stayed UNDER 10 of its past 14 games against teams with winning records. Play the UNDER.

The Eagles won in a major upset over the Rams on Sunday night, but the Eagles still are only 5-9 ATS overall and 0-4 ATS when following an ATS win this season. Houston has won 10 of its last 11 games and managed to beat the Jets last week even though it struggled when running the ball. Deshaun Watson did enough to get a win, completing 22-of-28 for 294 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. The Texans are #14 in the NFL, allowing 346.6 total yards per game and fourth in rushing defense (88.3 yards per game). The Eagles are #27 in yards allowed and second-to-last in pass defense. Each team has gone UNDER in eight of its 14 games and the UNDER is 8-1-1 in Houston's last 10 games in Week 16. The Texans are 23-9 UNDER their last 32 December games and 8-3 UNDER their last 11 after a win. Philly has stayed UNDER in six of its last seven home contests. The Eagles have covered the spread just once its last six home games and they are 1-5 ATS when following a win. Houston started the season 0-3, but can clinch a spot in the AFC playoffs with a win on Sunday. Play the Texans and the UNDER.

The Philadelphia Eagles should be kicking themselves as they are a 5-2 team that could easily be 7-0. They squandered 21 non-offensive points scored in San Francisco, and last week they had Arizona down 20-17 on the road with under two minutes left, only to allow a 75-yard TD pass for a 24-20 loss. The Eagles have been one of the most consistent offensive teams in the NFL as they have scored 20 or more points now in 16 straight games. They are now 12-3 in their last 15 regular season games, making them an elite team over the last season's worth of games. Houston is off to a 4-4 start, which certainly is much better than the two games they won all last season. The problem is that the four wins have come at the expense of teams that have a combined record of 10-21. The four losses have come against teams that are a combined 19-8. If they want to be taken seriously they have to beat somebody and they have not (5-12 straight-up vs. winning teams the past 2.5 seasons). As much as this Texans team has turned the corner, they have not been able to beat the good teams. Take Philadelphia.

Last week we were on the Bears to cover against the Eagles. It was Philly's first loss with Michael Vick at quarterback. That was a great spot to fade the Eagles as I wrote here. They were coming off a very tough stretch of important games. After playing good football for weeks, it was a classic letdown spot. Well, Philly lost that one and as a result there will be no letdown here. The Eagles gave up 31 points to the Bears, highlighting how important Asante Samuel is for this team. The bad news for the Texans is that Samuel is expected back this week. If he succeeds in taking the deep threat of Andre Johnson out of the Houston offense, the Texans will struggle more than expected to score. The Eagles have generated 29 sacks on the season, and always seem to come up big at home. Houston is a bad team playing on a short week which usually ends in disaster. Teams playing on Thursday as a road dog in the NFL are a dismal 20-38 ATS, good for 34.4%. The Texans own the second worst pass defense in the league and after this week, it may be ranked dead last. They have allowed 38 completions of 20+ yards already this season so DeSean Jackson has to be licking his lips. The Eagles have gone 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games vs. bad defenses (those allowing 5.7+ yards per play). That includes a good 16-5 ATS mark vs. such teams in November and December. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 41-29 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). The Reid-led Eagles are also 17-8 ATS after giving up 30+ points last game. I don't often back favorites, nevermind big favorites. But, I really believe the Eagles are the much better team and they are very motivated here and they will win big. I also like the UNDER a lot in this game. Houston has been all about high-scoring games this season, but what may have gone unnoticed is that their offense has really slowed down. They scored 30+ in four of their first six games. But since then, they have not reached 30 once, averaging just 22.2 points per game over their last five! Houston has gone 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 December road games. Philly is 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 home games following a road game in which they allowed 24+ points. They are also 52-39 UNDER when coming off an OVER under Andy Reid. In Thursday games with a total of 38+ and the home team favored have gone 28-14 UNDER in the last 42 such games. The public is on the Eagles and the OVER here. My computer matchup predicts an 8-point Eagles win. I like Philly to cover and this game to fall UNDER the total.