Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh had the veteran leadership, but Houston had the dominating defense. The visiting Texans stomped all over the Steelers in a 30-6 win. Houston has won 10 in a row, along with a 10-5 spread run. They ran for 164 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, against the Steelers. The defense is No. 1 in yards allowed, second in points given up, ninth in sacks, and fifth on third down (34.89%). They're in the role of underdog, but have won four straight as a dog against Buffalo (23-19), at Indianapolis (20-16), at Kansas City (20-10), and at the Chargers (20-16). The Texans allowed an average of 15.25 points in those games, and three of those opponents had Top 12 offenses. New England's offense struggles against pressure teams. QB Drake Maye was sacked 47 times during the regular season, then dropped five more times last week against the Chargers. Play Houston. 

New England just lost an emotional, hard-fought battle with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, and now the Patriots have to go on the road to play a team that is ready to redeem itself after getting humiliated, 40-0, at Buffalo on Sunday. Houston beat Jacksonville in the season opener and then lost to two quality teams in Cleveland and Carolina, but it all fell apart last week when Buffalo picked off four passes of Davis Mills, who completed only 11 of 21 for 87 yards while filling in for Tyrod Taylor. The Patriots are averaging only 17.8 points themselves and are 1-3 for the first time in 20 years. New England is #26 in total yards per game and #31 in rushing yards per game. Mac Jones went 31 of 40 for 275 yards and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay, but this week will be his second road start. The Texans won last year's meeting, 27-20, and they also defeated the Pats 28-22 in 2019. New England is 1-8-1 ATS following an ATS win and 2-7 ATS its last nine as a favorite. Take the Texans for a Max Play.

New England's tremendous defense won another game for the Patriots as Tom Brady and the offense struggled mightily to put points on the board. Brady finished just 17-of-37 for 190 yards and Julian Edelman caught eight passes for 93 yards. Sony Michel rushed 20 times for 85 yards. The Pats are thin at wide receiver though and Brady hasn't been his old self the last several games. Houston hung on and got a much-needed win over the Colts on Thursday night and will have three extra days to prepare for this one. Houston QB Deshaun Watson bounced back from a subpar performance against the Ravens and threw for 298 yards on 19-of-30 with two touchdowns and an interception. Will Fuller had seven receptions for 140 yards and Carlos Hyde rushed for 67 yards. The Texans are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 games when following a loss and the home team is 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 meetings. Houston is #7 in yards of offense compared to #17 for New England. The Texans have kept it close in every game this season except against Baltimore. Take the points and play on the Texans.