Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

DeMeco Ryans is 5-2 straight up and 4-3 ATS in preseason for Houston, and he has won and covered his past three true road games. Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell is 4-6 straight up and 5-5 ATS overall. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their past five against the AFC South and 2-6 ATS overall as preseason home favorites. The Texans' QB rotation behind C.J. Stroud consists of Davis Mills, Graham Mertz, and Kedon Slovis. Mills appeared in four games in 2024, his fourth NFL season, and completed 20 of 36 passes for 212 yards. Mertz leads Slovis for the third-string job after being a sixth-round pick from Florida. Slovis is also in his first season. The Vikings will finally get a chance to see J.J. McCarthy in action after he missed all of last season with a torn meniscus. He likely will play just a couple of series before the backups enter the game. They are Sam Howell, Brett Rypien, and Max Brosmer. Rypien hasn't played since 2023, and Howell has not looked good in training camp. Houston is 1-6 UNDER in preseason the past two years, and this game should see plenty of playing time from rookie quarterbacks. Houston allowed 14.5 points per game and Minnesota 12.7 in the 2024 preseason. Take the Texans and the UNDER.

Two winless teams go at it in this one, although Minnesota came close against Tennessee, which got a 55-yard field goal by Stephen Gostkowski with under two minutes left to beat the Vikings 31-30 on Sunday. The Vikings did have several bright spots on offense as Dalvin Cook rushed for a career-high 181 yards and a touchdown, and rookie Justin Jefferson had seven receptions for 175 yards and a score. Kirk Cousins showed some improvement from the week before as he was 16 of 27 for 251 scores, although he threw two interceptions. Houston managed only 51 yards of total offense in the second half and lost 28-21 at Pittsburgh to fall to 0-3. The Texans have allowed an average of 31.7 points per game, and the offense has been lacking also. Deshaun Watson got off to a good start against the Steelers until they started putting more pressure on him, and that resulted in a meager second half for Houston. The Vikings are 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 October games, and they still are 39-14 ATS their last 53 games following a loss. The Texans are 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games, including 2-6 ATS as home favorites. Take the Vikings.

If you look at the major injuries these teams have suffered, it is unlikely that anyone would consider them to be a combined 7-1 entering this game. Minnesota lost QB Terry Bridgewater, and RB Adrien Peterson, while Houston lost one of the best defensive players in the NFL in J.J. Watt. The good news for the Texans is their pass defense is the best in the league, and the Minnesota running game is almost nonexistent without Peterson. QB Sam Bradford is not going to have as big of windows to throw through in this game, and his past presents that as very problematic for the Vikings QB. The Vikings also have a suspect kicking game as Blair Walsh, who blew a chip shot FG that sent the Vikings home from the playoffs last season, continues to struggle. He has missed three times in four games already, and that reveals some hidden value here. This game is going to be about field position, and neither team can afford a missed opportunity. This game looks statistically even to me, so the line is out of whack with the Vikings as a TD favorite. Take the points on Houston.