Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers Point Spread Picks

Justin Herbert isn't playing tonight, and C.J. Stroud is barely getting more than a look. Jim Harbaugh has roughly fifteen veterans and starters warming up before this one, and none of them are taking a snap, saving Herbert's real work for next week. DeMeco Ryans is running it the other way, giving Stroud just a quick series to shake off rust before turning things over to Davis Mills, an established, capable backup with real starting experience behind him. That's the shape of tonight: two offenses run for the bulk of the night by Trey Lance and Davis Mills, with a stack of fringe roster players around them pushing to make a 53-man roster. Backups auditioning for jobs don't play conservative preseason football; they play fast and aggressive, and defenses stocked with camp bodies who haven't practiced together tend to give up exactly the kind of scrambling, broken-coverage plays that inflate a preseason score. Lance has the arm talent to push the ball downfield and every incentive to show it off with his own roster spot on the line. Add in two rosters' worth of players making their case in front of coaching staffs still finalizing depth charts, and this turns into more possessions and more points than a total built around the two teams' names, not the players actually dressing tonight. Back the OVER.

Houston did not play its best offensive game by a long shot, but it still managed to escape with a 23-21 win over Las Vegas, giving the Texans their seventh straight victory. C.J. Stroud was 23 of 35 for 187 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. The Texans still top the NFL in scoring defense with 16.6 per game. They are 5-0 ATS in their past five games after totaling fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Houston has gone UNDER 11 of 16 games, and it has stayed UNDER in its past four Week 17 games. Los Angeles has gone UNDER four of six, and it is on a four-game win streak and seven of eight. However, the Chargers are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 games after totaling more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and they are 4-10 ATS on Saturdays. Houston has won six straight against AFC opponents, and the Texans are 6-2 ATS in their past eight Saturday games. Los Angeles has injuries on the offensive line, which doesn't bode well against the tough Houston defensive front. Take the Texans on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Houston needed a win to gain momentum heading into the playoffs, and the Texans got it as they topped Tennessee 23-14 in the regular-season finale. Dameon Pierce ran for 176 yards, including a 92-yard run, and C.J. Stroud completed all six of his passes for 50 yards and a touchdown before he was replaced by Davis Mills, who threw for 128 yards. The Texans piled up 207 rushing yards on 7.1 per carry. Houston has gone UNDER six of eight home games, and it is 5-0-1 UNDER after totaling more than 150 yards on the ground in its previous game. The Texans have won 11 of 16 outright against AFC opponents, and they are 10-6-1 UNDER this season. Los Angeles won its final three games, but two were against New England and Las Vegas, a combined 8-26, and both fired their head coaches after the season. Houston's defense will be up to the task, as it ranks in the top 10 in sacks, interceptions, and yards allowed per game. The Texans and Chargers combined allow only 39.6 points per game. Take the Texans on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Los Angeles suffered a 38-10 loss to Jacksonville as Justin Herbert played through a fractured rib cartilage, but the Chargers will be better prepared this week with more knowledge of how to handle the situation and Herbert has been upgraded to a full participant in practice. Fortunately. the Chargers get the Texans this week and they are allowing 410 total offense yards while their offense is fourth-worst in the league with 287.3 yards per game. Davis Mills went 20-for-32 for 245 yards with two interceptions in Houston's 23-20 loss to Chicago while the Bears ran roughshod over the Texans defense and totaled 281 rushing yards. Houston is 0-4-1 straight up dating to last season and it is averaging just 16.3 points this year. The Chargers are in revenge after losing a key game to Houston in late December and they are 11-3 ATS after a double-digit home loss. The Texans are 3-8 ATS their past 11 October games and 7-3 UNDER its last 10 games versus the AFC. Los Angeles has stayed UNDER eight of its past 10 after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game and it can use a lot of clock running on Houston's weak run defense. Take the Chargers and the UNDER.

This is the first time all season Los Angeles has been a double-digit favorite, and the defense is not elite. They are 21st in yards allowed, fourth-worst versus the run (136.8 yards rushing per game allowed), 26th in points surrendered, and dead last on third-down (49.7%). They come off a tough loss in a big game, losing in OT to rival Kansas City, 34-28. The Chargers will be without three defensive starters, including star pass-rusher Joey Bosa. They're 36-55 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Houston plays its fourth home game in the last five contests and comes off of a 30-16 win at Jacksonville. QB David Mills is getting more comfortable, and speedy WR Brandin Cooks had 102 yards and seven receptions last week, so back the big home dog. Play Houston.