Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Picks

Houston and Indianapolis are both winless, but the question is which defense has been the bigger problem. Indianapolis has allowed 37 points a game through two weeks, a figure padded by a 41-point night against Baltimore and a shootout loss to Kansas City in which the Colts still gave up 33. Houston's defense has had its own rough patches, but at 28 points allowed a game, that's nine points a game better than what Indianapolis is surrendering. Houston's offense hasn't been sharp either, averaging under 19 points a game, but it doesn't need to be against a defense that gives up more than 35 a game on its worst days. Indianapolis has shown signs of life offensively, scoring 30 on Kansas City last week, but it still lost, and the defense couldn't get a stop when it mattered most. I want to be on the side with the lesser of two defensive problems. Back the Texans.

Combine the Texans (-567) and the Patriots (-653) into a 2-team parlay at -280 odds.

In the peaks and valleys of the NFL season, the arrow is pointing up for the Texans and down for the Colts right now. The Texans have won three straight to move above .500 for the first time this season. The Colts have lost two of their last three after starting 7-1, and Daniel Jones is beginning to turn into a pumpkin. Jones has seven turnovers, been sacked 15 times, and has had two of his three worst passer ratings of the year during these past three games. This looks like another rough outing for Jones. Houston hasn't allowed more than 200 yards passing since Week 3. The Texans give up the second fewest points in the league at 16.5 per game and rank No. 2 in fewest yards allowed, holding opponents to 264.3 a game. Houston's five losses have come by an average of 4.8 points. The Texans have defeated Indianapolis three straight times and four of the past five. Houston is hopeful that C.J. Stroud will be able to play this week. But even if he still can't, Davis Mills is one of the better backups in the NFL and has played well in Stroud's absence. Take the Texans. 

Houston's defense was 14th in the NFL last year in yards allowed, sixth versus the run, 11th in points given up, sixth on third down, and piled up 46 sacks. The team signed 14 defensive free agents, including DEs Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry. and cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson. The Texans have gone four straight games UNDER in divisional play, including a 23-19 game versus the Colts. Indianapolis begins its second season with young QB Anthony Richardson. The defensive front is outstanding as the Colts were able to re-sign nose tackle Grover Stewart while tackle DeForest Buckner got a two-year extension. The run defense was 10th in the league last season in yards rushing per carry allowed (4.1), plus 11th on third down. NFL divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS in Week 1, including a 17-4 ATS run. Take Indianapolis.