Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Picks

Combine the Texans (-567) and the Patriots (-653) into a 2-team parlay at -280 odds.

In the peaks and valleys of the NFL season, the arrow is pointing up for the Texans and down for the Colts right now. The Texans have won three straight to move above .500 for the first time this season. The Colts have lost two of their last three after starting 7-1, and Daniel Jones is beginning to turn into a pumpkin. Jones has seven turnovers, been sacked 15 times, and has had two of his three worst passer ratings of the year during these past three games. This looks like another rough outing for Jones. Houston hasn't allowed more than 200 yards passing since Week 3. The Texans give up the second fewest points in the league at 16.5 per game and rank No. 2 in fewest yards allowed, holding opponents to 264.3 a game. Houston's five losses have come by an average of 4.8 points. The Texans have defeated Indianapolis three straight times and four of the past five. Houston is hopeful that C.J. Stroud will be able to play this week. But even if he still can't, Davis Mills is one of the better backups in the NFL and has played well in Stroud's absence. Take the Texans. 

Houston's defense was 14th in the NFL last year in yards allowed, sixth versus the run, 11th in points given up, sixth on third down, and piled up 46 sacks. The team signed 14 defensive free agents, including DEs Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry. and cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson. The Texans have gone four straight games UNDER in divisional play, including a 23-19 game versus the Colts. Indianapolis begins its second season with young QB Anthony Richardson. The defensive front is outstanding as the Colts were able to re-sign nose tackle Grover Stewart while tackle DeForest Buckner got a two-year extension. The run defense was 10th in the league last season in yards rushing per carry allowed (4.1), plus 11th on third down. NFL divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS in Week 1, including a 17-4 ATS run. Take Indianapolis. 

Houston can clinch the AFC South with a win or a Jacksonville loss or tie and they can earn a playoff berth with a win OR a tie plus a Jacksonville loss plus a Pittsburgh loss or tie. Indianapolis needs some help as it clinches the AFC South with a win plus a Jacksonville loss or tie or a tie plus a Jaguars loss. The Colts clinch a playoff berth with a win OR a tie plus a Pittsburgh loss or tie. The Texans have C.J. Stroud back from concussion protocol and he threw for 213 yards and a TD and Houston held Tennessee to only 187 yards of offense and beat the Titans 26-3 on Sunday. The Texans look to avenge a 31-20 loss in the first meeting and it went OVER by 10.5 points. The Colts have gone OVER five of their past six games overall and their past five home games. Indianapolis barely got by Las Vegas 23-20 and took advantage of several mental and physical mistakes by the Raiders. The previous week the Colts were manhandled 29-10 by Atlanta and they have split their past four games. Indianapolis is No. 27 in the NFL allowing 24.5 points per game. Houston is 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and the Colts are 6-13 ATS versus AFC South opponents. Indianapolis is 9-2 OVER after allowing more than 350 yards of offense its previous game. Take the Texans and the OVER.