Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Green Bay carries a 14-point game against Atlanta into today and ranks 32nd in third-down conversion at 27.78 percent. The Packers are also 32nd in rushing at 48.7 yards a game, and with Josh Jacobs out, their drives have little to build on. Their offense scores 18.7 points a game, 24th, and it has put up 20 and 14 in its last two games, while Tampa Bay put up 19 and 16. Tampa Bay ranks 28th on third down at 32.56 percent and 28th in total yards. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels takes over at quarterback with Baker Mayfield out with a dislocated right thumb, and the Buccaneers score 20.7 points a game, 19th. Both defenses allow plenty, 30.3 points a game for Green Bay and 26.3 for Tampa Bay, but giving up points takes an opponent that can hold the ball for long stretches, and neither offense is converting often enough to do it. Play the first-half UNDER.

Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are an underdog but 9-3 ATS against winning teams. Rodgers has been NFL MVP in each of the last two years. The defense is second in the NFL on third-down (25%), Top 10 in points surrendered, plus Top 5 against the pass after being Top 10 in 2021. The Packers are 27-16 ATS on natural grass, 10-4 ATS versus the NFC, and 37-14-1 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the last game. Tampa Bay has been very conservative on offense as they look to run the football more this season. But the biggest concern for the Buccaneers is health. Four-time Pro Bowl selection Mike Evans won't play as he sits out because of a suspension. RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring), center Robert Hainsey (knee), and offensive tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) are hurting, while the defense is banged up in the secondary with cornerback Carlton Davis III (hip injury). NFL underdogs like the Packers that averaged 24 ppg in the previous season are 46-23 ATS, so back the talented and healthier dog. Play Green Bay.

Tampa Bay buried the Packers 38-10 on October 18 but that was at home, not in Green Bay where the forecast for Sunday is temperatures in the mid-20s with snow showers. Of course, Tom Brady knows all about that and has played in terrible weather many times, but the Packers also have a revamped offensive line that dominated the Rams last week. Also, the Packers will need to pressure Brady more in this rematch as he is much less effective than many QBs when having to hurry his throws or scramble. The Packers have won seven in a row and Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdown passes and ran for a score in the 32-18 victory over Los Angeles. The Packers did not allow any sacks while sacking Jared Goff four times. Those will be the keys to beating the Buccaneers. The Packers are 11-4 the past two seasons vs. winning teams including 9-2 vs. elite teams. When facing poor passing defenses like Tampa's, Aaron Rodgers goes off, having gone 21-6 straight-up vs. teams that allow 61%+ completions the past two seasons. The Bucs offense is formiddable, but no worry. In late season play at Lambeau, the Pack are very hard to beat, having gone a perfect 10-0 straight up here in late-season play vs. teams with high-powered offsenses that average 27+ points per game. Under Matt LaFluer, Green Bay is 16-2 as a home favorite and 7-1 when revenging a loss. Green Bay has gone OVER its last three games and the OVER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay's last seven games as a road underdog. Also, the Bucs have soared OVER seven of their last eight after an ATS win. Tampa Bay is 22-10 OVER its last 32 games overall and 25-10 OVER its last 35 road contests. The Packers have gone OVER six playoff games in a row and eight January games in a row. Play the Packers on the moneyline and take this game to go OVER the total.

Tampa Bay not only has to face a 4-0 team, but one that is rested after a bye week, and Aaron Rodgers has been on fire this season passing for 1,214 yards and 13 touchdowns with no interceptions. Rodgers completed 81.8 percent of his throws for 327 yards and four scores against Atlanta as the Packers rolled to a 30-16 victory. Green Bay is #2 in total yards of offense and leads the NFL with a 38.0 scoring average. The Packers have been decent on defense with the #12 ranking in yards allowed. Tom Brady has been shaky at times with his new team as he has thrown four interceptions this season while completing 64.3 percent of his passes. Brady also lost his cool in the game the Buccaneers lost to Chicago as he was seen screaming at his offensive line on the sideline. The Packers have gotten the money all four games while covering by an average of 10.8 points. Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 games going back to last season with the only loss being against San Francisco in the playoffs. Also, Rodgers has shown no signs of weakness this year. Play the Packers.