Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are an underdog but 9-3 ATS against winning teams. Rodgers has been NFL MVP in each of the last two years. The defense is second in the NFL on third-down (25%), Top 10 in points surrendered, plus Top 5 against the pass after being Top 10 in 2021. The Packers are 27-16 ATS on natural grass, 10-4 ATS versus the NFC, and 37-14-1 ATS after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the last game. Tampa Bay has been very conservative on offense as they look to run the football more this season. But the biggest concern for the Buccaneers is health. Four-time Pro Bowl selection Mike Evans won't play as he sits out because of a suspension. RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring), center Robert Hainsey (knee), and offensive tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) are hurting, while the defense is banged up in the secondary with cornerback Carlton Davis III (hip injury). NFL underdogs like the Packers that averaged 24 ppg in the previous season are 46-23 ATS, so back the talented and healthier dog. Play Green Bay.

Tampa Bay buried the Packers 38-10 on October 18 but that was at home, not in Green Bay where the forecast for Sunday is temperatures in the mid-20s with snow showers. Of course, Tom Brady knows all about that and has played in terrible weather many times, but the Packers also have a revamped offensive line that dominated the Rams last week. Also, the Packers will need to pressure Brady more in this rematch as he is much less effective than many QBs when having to hurry his throws or scramble. The Packers have won seven in a row and Aaron Rodgers threw two touchdown passes and ran for a score in the 32-18 victory over Los Angeles. The Packers did not allow any sacks while sacking Jared Goff four times. Those will be the keys to beating the Buccaneers. The Packers are 11-4 the past two seasons vs. winning teams including 9-2 vs. elite teams. When facing poor passing defenses like Tampa's, Aaron Rodgers goes off, having gone 21-6 straight-up vs. teams that allow 61%+ completions the past two seasons. The Bucs offense is formiddable, but no worry. In late season play at Lambeau, the Pack are very hard to beat, having gone a perfect 10-0 straight up here in late-season play vs. teams with high-powered offsenses that average 27+ points per game. Under Matt LaFluer, Green Bay is 16-2 as a home favorite and 7-1 when revenging a loss. Green Bay has gone OVER its last three games and the OVER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay's last seven games as a road underdog. Also, the Bucs have soared OVER seven of their last eight after an ATS win. Tampa Bay is 22-10 OVER its last 32 games overall and 25-10 OVER its last 35 road contests. The Packers have gone OVER six playoff games in a row and eight January games in a row. Play the Packers on the moneyline and take this game to go OVER the total.

Tampa Bay not only has to face a 4-0 team, but one that is rested after a bye week, and Aaron Rodgers has been on fire this season passing for 1,214 yards and 13 touchdowns with no interceptions. Rodgers completed 81.8 percent of his throws for 327 yards and four scores against Atlanta as the Packers rolled to a 30-16 victory. Green Bay is #2 in total yards of offense and leads the NFL with a 38.0 scoring average. The Packers have been decent on defense with the #12 ranking in yards allowed. Tom Brady has been shaky at times with his new team as he has thrown four interceptions this season while completing 64.3 percent of his passes. Brady also lost his cool in the game the Buccaneers lost to Chicago as he was seen screaming at his offensive line on the sideline. The Packers have gotten the money all four games while covering by an average of 10.8 points. Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 games going back to last season with the only loss being against San Francisco in the playoffs. Also, Rodgers has shown no signs of weakness this year. Play the Packers.

Tampa Bay has won and covered two of its last three games and winds up a three-game road trip in this one. The Buccaneers have plenty of offensive punch, at third in the NFL in passing yards behind WRs Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. They've scored 50 points the last two games, both on the road. They match up well with a Green Bay team with all kinds of injury problems on both sides of the line. QB Aaron Rodgers is still recovering from a collarbone injury with the team riding a 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS skid. Green Bay's defense had a makeover in the offseason to try to fix problems in the secondary but they are still struggling, at #23 in yards allowed, #25 in passing yards allowed. The Packers come off a 31-28 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday night and the team is 2-9 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Green Bay is also on an 18-6 run OVER the total, and12-3 OVER against the NFC. The Buccaneers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings, including 5-2-1 ATS at Lambeau Field. Take Tampa Bay and the OVER.