Green Bay Packers vs St. Louis Rams

You can't trust the erratic Rams under Jeff Fisher. They get up for divisional games, stunning the Cardinals on the road last week, but now have to head to Lambeau Field for their second straight tough road contest. You need a good pass defense to hang with Green Bay and the Rams don't. In fact, they're in the middle of the pack at defending the pass, allowing 235.3 yards per game. Despite the upset last week, St. Louis is on a 2-5 spread run as well as 26-53-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are also 9-2 OVER the total in October. They run into the best team in the NFC, led by the best QB in the game in Aaron Rodgers (11 TDs, 0 picks). Since the start of last season Rodgers has 50 TDs to just five picks! Green Bay's defense is third in the NFL allowing 17.8 points per game while the offense is #10 in yards, third in rushing and sixth in points (28.3 ppg). Green Bay is on a 5-0 ATS run as well as 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 home games. The Pack is also 8-3 OVER the total at home and 11-5 OVER on natural grass. When these teams meet the favorite is 8-0 against the spread and the OVER is 6-2, and this shapes up as a one-sided rout for the home team. Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack are 46-30 ATS at home and 67-40 ATS as a favorite (including 21-9 at home laying 7.5 to 14 points).They are also 89-68 to the OVER under McCarthy inclluding 22-8 OVER as a home favorite in this range of 7.5 to 14 points. Back the Pack and take the OVER.

This is certainly a game of the haves vs. the have-nots. While it looked like the St. Louis Rams turned the corner last year and would be competitive this season, that certainly hasn't happened with the Rams off to an 0-4 start. Their offense has fallen back once again and is averaging just 9 points per game. That makes this one look easy for the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Green Bay packers who are scoring points with high regularity at 34.6 ppg. While the Packers offense remains lethal behind the accurate tosses of Aaron Rodgers and all his weapons, the defense has been highly suspect. After ranking No. 2 a year ago, the Packers stop-unit comes into this one at just No. 21 in the league, allowing over 21 points per contest. This is a similar situation that good teams have found themselves in many times in the past. Facing a team they should pound to death, they come in a bit overconfident, while the winless team coming off a bye is ready to show up. Teams that start the season 0-4 or worse and are coming off a bye are 21-3-1 ATS since 1990, as well as a perfect 10-0 ATS as a road dog. Green Bay should win this game by 20+, but more likely they will surprisingly struggle. St. Louis will find a way to score against this Packers defense. The last six played in this situation have done exactly that, averaging 52 points per game. The last three teams in this spot were on average a +12.3 point underdog yet they have won the game outright! The Packers are now 22-12 to the OVER in their last 29 at Lambeau as a favorite under Mike McCarthy. They are also 54-26-2 to the OVER in their last 82 vs. losing teams and 85-54 OVER following a game that went UNDER. Play on St. Louis and the OVER.

The Green Bay Packers have stumbled out of the gate. They were supposed to beat Chicago in week one and did. But it required a heroic last minute thouchdown pass. Then, they lost outright last week to Cincinnati as a 9 point favorite, reaching a real low. They are really having problems on their offensive line. Last week the Bengals got to Aaron Rodgers seven times and Rodgers has yet to get in-synch this season. He has now been sacked 10 times on the young season, and seeing LT Chad Clifton carried off the field with an ankle injury in the third quarter won't help things. You really have to question if a team is overrated when they are a double-digit favorite at home, get a pick-six in the game, and still lose the game outright by seven points. It certainly isn't a team on which I feel comfortable laying a TD on the road. The Packers may yet have a good season, but they need to prove they are worthy of the big favorite role before I back them there. The Rams' offense has been missing the first two weeks, but the defense has been very respectable considering the fact that they are spending most of the time on the field. They kept the Redskins out of the end zone on the road last week. If not for a late fumble inside the Skins redzone, the Rams would have likely won that game. The turnover (and subsequent loss) helped mask the fact that the Rams' offense actually showed signs of life in that game. They had three drives of 10+ plays and they were 50% on third-down conversions. Yes, the St. Louis offense has issues, but they aren't as bad as people think. The public is lining up on the Packers like they already know the final score, with nearly 80% on them. This is supposed to be a bounce-back week for them. Maybe they forgot that the Rams lost three of their last four road games a year ago by 24 points, 19, and 44 points, but then came home and lost to the Niners by 1 point, Seattle by 3, and Maimi by 4, and then beat the Cowboys here. This is just too many points for a team on the road that can't keep defenders out of their backfield.