Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Green Bay's defense keeps them in games, they are 11th in yards allowed and Top 10 in points given up (19.9 per game). They come off a 20-3 win over the Rams allowing 15.75 points over the last four contests. The Packers are 36-19 ATS on the road after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in back-to-back contests. Pittsburgh's defense is the second-worst in the NFL in yards surrendered (377.3 per game) and 19th on third down, while the offense is the fourth-worst in total yards and points (16.6 per game). QBs Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky have combined for seven TDs and six picks. The Steelers have thrived as an underdog but are 1-2 SU/ATS in the role over favorite or at +1 averaging 11 points. Play Green Bay as a Max Play. 

Pittsburgh is 24-8-2 ATS as an underdog, including 18-7-1 ATS as a road dog. They still have a terrific veteran QB in Ben Roethlisberger and a defense that is #13 in the NFL in yards allowed, Top 10 against the run, and #12 in points surrendered. Pittsburgh is 34-16-2 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record, plus 17-6 ATS off a loss by 10+ points to a division rival. Green Bay isn't providing Aaron Rodgers with any offensive balance. They are third-worst in rushing yards with their backs averaging 3.4 yards per carry. That's a big reason why their third-down offense is #21 while their third-down conversion defense is third-worst (53.33%). The Green Bay 'D' is also #23 in points surrendered (27.7 per game). Green Bay is 26-43 ATS at home against teams that allow 5.65 yards per play. In addition, the Packers are 96-69 OVER the total versus losing teams and 74-46 OVER against opponents that allow 350+ yards per game. Play Pittsburgh and the OVER.

Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs got most of the snaps in Pittsburgh's 31-14 win over Philadelphia, but Mike Tomlin still is 20-17-1 UNDER in his preseason career, including 7-1 UNDER the last two seasons. The Steelers averaged 3.0 yards per carry and its QBs were sacked four times and they converted just three of 14 third downs. Green Bay got ample playing time from three quarterbacks as DeShone Kizer completed 9-of-18 for 134 yards, Tim Boyle finished 7-of-15 for 130 yards and two TDs and Brett Hundley went 9-of-14 for 108 yards with a touchdown and interception against the Titans. The Packers averaged only 2.8 rushing yards per carry with Joel Bouagnon was the leading rusher with only 25 yards gained. The Packers had gone UNDER all eight preseason games the last two years before going OVER against Tennessee so it will still be hard to buck that UNDER trend by Mike McCarthy. Aaron Rodgers plans to play a couple series, but it will be his first appearance in nearly a year and it will mainly be to get his teammates some in-game work with him. Take the UNDER.