Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets

Coach Aaron Glenn is a defensive guy, and the Jets have excellent defensive depth. They won all three preseason games last season, allowing an average of 11.6 points. The offense has an experienced August QB rotation in Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Adrian Martinez. The Jets are 7-1 SU/ATS in their last eight preseason road games. Meanwhile, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has a losing preseason record. Starter Jordan Love won't play much, if at all, and the backups are below-average in QBs Malik Willis, Sean Clifford, and Taylor Elgersma. The secondary is in flux as cornerback Nate Hobbs (signed in the offseason to be one of the anchors of the defense) just underwent knee surgery. Play New York. 

The New York Jets already beat their stadium rival, the Giants, while the Packers looked bad losing 26-7 to Houston, so the motivation factor is clearly on Green Bay's side in this matchup. Rookie Zach Wilson led the Jets to a field goal against the Giants' backups and completed 6 of 9 for 63 yards. Jordan Love was 12 of 17 passing for 122 yards and a touchdown in his first game for the Packers, but he is questionable for this game as he injured his shoulder during the opener, so the Packers signed Jake Dolegala to go along with Kurt Benkert for backups. Aaron Rodgers does not expect to get much action if at all in the preseason. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur went over the total all four preseason games in 2019 and will want to generate some offense after managing only seven points last week. Wilson was one of just two rookie QBs to start their team's preseason opener and should get more time this week, especially since Robert Saleh liked what he saw. Look for Green Bay to rebound from last week's weak showing. Play the Packers for a Max Play.

Green Bay is winless on the road in this disappointing campaign, but they catch a break against a punchless NY Jets outfit. The Packers have had a tough road schedule, but this offense has the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers (23 TDs, 2 INTs). Rodgers is used to playing outdoors in the cold and Green Bay is 68-43 ATS in December games, plus 35-20 ATS on the road after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three contests. The offense is top 10 in the NFL in total yards and passing, while the defense is #15 in yards allowed, and on a 6-2 run UNDER the total. The weather will be cold and the UNDER is 107-58 when any NFL team has lost five or six out of seven games when playing in December. They face a NY Jets squad that has no offense, #30 in yards, #24 in points scored (20.9 pg). The Jets are 68-45 UNDER the total in December games, plus NFL home dogs off two or more consecutive OVERS are 30-60 ATS, so back the better team with the elite QB in a defensive battle. Play Green Bay and the UNDER.

The deck was stacked against Green Bay last week. They drew the short straw and opened the 2014 NFL season on the road in Seattle, where the Seahawks are now 18-1 in their last 19 games. The building is always loud, but celebrating their Super Bowl romp from a year ago just amped the crowd even more. Green Bay now faces a must-win scenario. The good news is they come home where they have the NFL's fourth best winning margin since 2007 at 10 points per game on average. They also have one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers who is 19-10 ATS in his last 29 when following a loss in their previous game. The Jets escaped at home last week against an Oakland team that has now lost seven straight games. It was pretty ugly, and New York is going to struggle in this atmosphere against a hungry and mad Green Bay team that is destined and determined not to dig an 0-2 hole for themselves. The Jets failed to top the 20-point mark vs. Oakland, marking the 11th time in their last 17 games they have failed to do so. Green Bay has something they have been lacking in past years as Eddie Lacy is a bonafide top back, and it gives them the closer they never had. They can now take a lead and put the ball on the ground and close the game. Green Bay is 45-21-2 ATS in their last 68 games after allowing more than 350 yards. And under Mike McCarthy, this team is 28-17 ATS as a favorite int he 3.5 to 9.5 point range. They have also played six of their last eight at home to the UNDER, and the Jets are 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven. Look for Green Bay to open a big lead, close and shorten the game feeding Lacy. Go with Green Bay and the UNDER.