Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets Point Spread Picks

Green Bay's final score against Minnesota looks like a blowout, but the game wasn't decided until the fourth quarter. The Packers led 22-17 with the fourth quarter about to start before Minnesota scored 22 unanswered points in the final period alone, an ugly finish that inflated a competitive loss into a 39-22 final. That kind of collapse happened without Josh Jacobs, who's out again Sunday, and without Micah Parsons, who tore his ACL last season and isn't expected back until at least Week 5. Green Bay is still finding its front-seven rotation without either of them. New York, meanwhile, controlled the clock for nearly 39 minutes in a turnover-free win over Tennessee, but that came against a Titans offense that scored just 10 points, not the kind of resistance that tells us much about facing a real one. Matt LaFleur's system hasn't changed, and the value is in a short number on the road against an offense that hasn't been tested yet. Green Bay is the right side on the spread today.

Coach Aaron Glenn is a defensive guy, and the Jets have excellent defensive depth. They won all three preseason games last season, allowing an average of 11.6 points. The offense has an experienced August QB rotation in Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Adrian Martinez. The Jets are 7-1 SU/ATS in their last eight preseason road games. Meanwhile, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has a losing preseason record. Starter Jordan Love won't play much, if at all, and the backups are below-average in QBs Malik Willis, Sean Clifford, and Taylor Elgersma. The secondary is in flux as cornerback Nate Hobbs (signed in the offseason to be one of the anchors of the defense) just underwent knee surgery. Play New York. 

The New York Jets already beat their stadium rival, the Giants, while the Packers looked bad losing 26-7 to Houston, so the motivation factor is clearly on Green Bay's side in this matchup. Rookie Zach Wilson led the Jets to a field goal against the Giants' backups and completed 6 of 9 for 63 yards. Jordan Love was 12 of 17 passing for 122 yards and a touchdown in his first game for the Packers, but he is questionable for this game as he injured his shoulder during the opener, so the Packers signed Jake Dolegala to go along with Kurt Benkert for backups. Aaron Rodgers does not expect to get much action if at all in the preseason. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur went over the total all four preseason games in 2019 and will want to generate some offense after managing only seven points last week. Wilson was one of just two rookie QBs to start their team's preseason opener and should get more time this week, especially since Robert Saleh liked what he saw. Look for Green Bay to rebound from last week's weak showing. Play the Packers for a Max Play.

Green Bay is winless on the road in this disappointing campaign, but they catch a break against a punchless NY Jets outfit. The Packers have had a tough road schedule, but this offense has the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers (23 TDs, 2 INTs). Rodgers is used to playing outdoors in the cold and Green Bay is 68-43 ATS in December games, plus 35-20 ATS on the road after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three contests. The offense is top 10 in the NFL in total yards and passing, while the defense is #15 in yards allowed, and on a 6-2 run UNDER the total. The weather will be cold and the UNDER is 107-58 when any NFL team has lost five or six out of seven games when playing in December. They face a NY Jets squad that has no offense, #30 in yards, #24 in points scored (20.9 pg). The Jets are 68-45 UNDER the total in December games, plus NFL home dogs off two or more consecutive OVERS are 30-60 ATS, so back the better team with the elite QB in a defensive battle. Play Green Bay and the UNDER.