Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

Minnesota opens the season by breaking in a new starting quarterback in Kyler Murray, who arrives fresh off his release in Arizona and will take his first snap in a Vikings uniform this weekend. Carson Wentz is the backup, and J.J. McCarthy, a former top-ten pick, has been dropped all the way to third string after a rough camp, which tells you the Vikings still aren't settled at that position even with Murray now the answer. Green Bay counters with a defense running an entirely new scheme: Jonathan Gannon takes over as coordinator and shifts the unit to a 3-4 front, with new faces coaching nearly every position group behind him. A new quarterback learning a new offense for the first time against a defense installing a new scheme of its own is not a recipe for a crisp, high-scoring opener, and that's exactly why a small number of points is worth taking on the Packers, who kept their own offensive structure fully intact under Matt LaFleur. Take Green Bay with the points, and take the UNDER on the total.

Combine the Vikings (-480) and the Broncos (-1125) into a 2-team parlay at -317 odds.

The combination of J.J. McCarthy’s growing pains and the Packers not fully clicking on offense has resulted in a total so low it is more reminiscent of a preseason game than a Week 12 matchup. This is not a high bar to clear to go OVER. Minnesota is eighth in yards per carry (4.7) with two good running backs, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Green Bay has given up an average of 138.7 yards rushing during its past three games. The Packers are likely to be missing their leading tackler, injured Quay Walker. The Vikings’ offensive line gets a massive boost with the expected return of center Ryan Kelly. He had missed the past six games. Jordan Love is learning to adjust to being without star tight end Tucker Kraft. Christian Watson has stepped up since coming off the injured list, catching two touchdown passes against the Giants last week. It is a plus if Josh Jacobs can play after suffering a minor knee injury against the Giants. Jacobs’ 11 TD runs are the most in the NFC. If Jacobs is unable to play, Love is likely to pass more. That would not be bad for the OVER either. Take the OVER.

Minnesota escaped with another win as it pulled off a 27-24 victory at Seattle on Sunday, but the Vikings now face their toughest test since losing to Detroit in Week 7. The Vikings have won eight straight, but only one of those opponents, Atlanta, has a reasonable shot of making the playoffs. Green Bay is seeking revenge for a 31-29 loss in the first meeting when Jordan Love threw for 389 yards and four TDs but was victimized by three interceptions. The Packers have won nine of 11 and are on a 5-0 ATS run. They are 5-2 UNDER their past seven games, and they got the NFL's first shutout of the season, defeating New Orleans 34-0 on Monday night. Minnesota is 6-2 UNDER at home, and the Packers have gone UNDER seven of 10 on the road against the Vikings, who are 1-6 ATS in their past seven Week 17 games. Green Bay has won 17 of its past 20 December games outright, and they are No. 6 in the league, allowing only 19.1 points per game this season. Take the Packers and the UNDER.