Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers Point Spread Picks

The Green Bay Packers are having a lot of growing pains with Jordan Love. He is learning on the job, and has a limited group of receivers to throw to. The result is the Packers have not scored more than 20 points in any of their last seven games, where they have averaged 16.7ppg. The defense has been better over the last five games allowing just 17.2ppg. The Chargers are a team that has played six of their last seven games UNDER the total. This sure looks like a spot that will not differ much as the Packers offense isn't generating enough points to win on a consistent basis. Interconfernce games with a total greater than 40 and playing as a home dog are 55% to the under since 2017. I like the UNDER.

The Green Bay Packers have a healthy Aaron Rodgers and have opened the season at 7-1. They have done this with a cast of WRs that have very little experience and with Devante Adams missing the last three games. Emerging star Aaron Jones has become a nightmare for defenses. He runs routes like a WR, and has lifted the Packers' running game as well. The Chargers' porous secondary is going to see a lot of play-action and deep shots, and it will be hard for them to slow Rodgers down. Rodgers rarely turns the ball over and has 41 TDs to four INTs since the start of last season. Phillip Rivers' numbers are considerably down from last season and the Chargers will have trouble matching scores with the red-hot Packers' offense. This is also a de facto home game as the Packers will have more fans at the game than the Chargers. Take the Packers.

The Green Bay Packers have been impressive in their 5-0 start. A lot of that has to do with Aaron Rodgers. Despite losing Jordy Nelson for the year, Davonte Adams, and a hampered Randall Cobb, Rodgers just makes his receivers better. Rodgers is doing it with both his arms and legs, and what might be more worthy of discussion is the emergence of the Packers defense. The Packers have eight INTs and 20 sacks on the season, and allows 316 yards per game. They are now the only team in the top 10 in both points scored and fewest points allowed. Rodgers seldom if ever has two bad games in a row. Over the last five years, when the Pack has been a favorite of -7 to -14, his passer rating has averaged 117.1 and the Pack is 22-12 ATS. Looking deeper, since the start of the 2007 season, Green Bay is an NFL best 87-56-3 ATS, and is 46-25-3 ATS at home, including 20-4-1 ATS as a home favorite from -8.5 to -14, where they are also 6-0 ATS vs. the AFC. The Packers also fit a big chalk bye system that plays on certain big favorites prior to their bye, which is a stunning 51-13 ATS. San Diego has issues, but one of them is not Phillip Rivers who continues to move the chains for the Chargers and put up points. The problem is that the Chargers defense has allowed all five teams on their schedule to score 24 points or more. The Chargers just 3-13 ATS in their last 16. Green Bay owns a 23-11 mark to the OVER in their last 34 at home vs. a team with a losing record. Lay the points on Green Bay and take the OVER.