Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Kansas City is off a 31-17 win at Las Vegas and is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS on the road. While the offense is getting into gear, the defense has been great all season ranked fourth in yards given up and third in points allowed (16.5 per game). The Chiefs are 53-33 ATS on the road after allowing six or more yards per play in the last game and they've covered seven consecutive non-conference road games. Green Bay's offense is 17th in points scored and 18th in total yards, while the defense is 18th in yards allowed and 22nd on third down (39.87%). NFL underdogs like the Packers of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference tilts are 8-28 ATS off a divisional win as an underdog of 6+ points. Play Kansas City. 

Kansas City evened its preseason record at 1-1 with a 24-14 win over Washington with Pat Mahomes completing 12 of 19 passing for 162 yards and two touchdowns to tight end Jody Fortson. Shane Buechele finished eight of 15 for 70 yards with no interceptions, and Dustin Crum was three of three for 27 yards while backing up Mahomes. Mahomes is not likely to play in this game, and Green Bay hasn't played many starters in the first two games. Matt LaFleur won't change his philosophy for this one. Aaron Rodgers hasn't appeared in a preseason game since 2018. The Packers did beat New Orleans, 20-10, last week with Jordan Love completing 12 of 24 for 113 yards, and Danny Etling scored on a 51-yard keeper. LaFleur still is just 3-6 straight up and 2-5-2 ATS in his preseason career. The Chiefs have won and covered three of their last five preseason contests dating to last season, and the Packers haven't won a preseason game away from home since 2017. Take the Chiefs.

This contest was supposed to be a matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes suffered an injury last week so that won't be the case. The Packers are somehow 6-1 on the season, even without Devante Adams for the last two weeks. The Packers may be the first 6-1 team in NFL history that has been out-gained by their opponents on the season. Matt Moore has a lot of weapons and he has been around for a while. The Packers defense isn't very good and in fact, it is below average. It has been all Aaron Rodgers, as the running game is just average. The Chiefs' defense is very strong defending the pass, so it won't be easy on Rodgers. The KC crowd, especially on a Sunday Night is as loud as it gets in the NFL. The Packers have had five home games, and Rodgers is just mediocre on the road at .500 for his career. Teams often step up the game after a star goes down, and the Chiefs will not be an easy out, and I think they could actually win this. Play on Kansas City.

Kansas City overhauled a bad defense this offseason and the results have been a mixed bag, allowing 20.3 points per game this August. They just gave up 27 points, 257 yards passing and 124 yards rushing to the 49ers. The run defense has allowed 124 yards in each of the last two games. Chiefs backup QB Chad Henne broke his ankle Saturday, but the team brought in capable veteran Matt Moore. Green Bay's defense has been worse, allowing 24.6 ppg this August. At least the new-look offense is producing, averaging 20.6 points. The Packers brought in offensive expert Matt LaFleur as coach, who worked in Atlanta under Kyle Shanahan and as the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams, learning from Sean McVay. These teams met in Week 4 last season in a shootout, a 33-21 Kansas City win, with the Chiefs piling up 326 passing yards. Look for a similar offensive show. This one finishes OVER.