Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Green Bay is on a 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS run. QB Jordan Love (15 TDs, 8 INTs) leads a balanced offense that averages 5.1 yards per rush. The offense is fifth in rushing, sixth in total yards per game, and seventh in scoring (26.6 points per game). The Packers have won five of their last six road contests. Jacksonville played in England on Sunday, so it's a quick turnaround after a long flight home. The defense is 26th in the NFL in yards allowed, 29th against the pass, and 26th on third down (45.05%). The Jaguars have failed to cover both of their home games in this stadium, beating Indianapolis, 37-34, while losing to Cleveland as a favorite, 18-13. The wagering value is on the visitors to win the game. Play Green Bay on the moneyline. 

This is a flat spot for Green Bay after its huge revenge win at San Francisco last Thursday when Aaron Rodgers completed 25 of 31 for 305 yards and four touchdowns. The 49ers seemed to be missing about half their team due to injuries and COVID problems, and the Packers led 31-3 after three quarters. Jacksonville came close to winning its first game since the season opener, but fell, 27-25, to Houston. The Jaguars actually outgained the Texans, 412-374, and rookie Jake Luton had a respectable performance completing 26 of 38 for 304 yards and one interception while James Robinson gained 99 yards on 25 carries. The Packers are just 10-21-1 ATS their last 32 November games, and they have the Indianapolis Colts on deck. Luton will start again as Gardner Minshew is recovering from a thumb injury, and he has an excellent target in D.J. Chark, who caught seven passes for 146 yards, including a 73-yarder for a touchdown against Houston. Grab the big points with the Jaguars for a Max Play.

Green Bay enters the season as a leading contender for a Super Bowl title with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy receiving duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The offensive line, though, will be without veteran Josh Sitton, who was released last week after playing through injuries last year. Lane Taylor, with two career starts, will take his place and has shown an ability to produce in the running game. And Eddie Lacy has slimmed down after a disappointing 2015 season at running back. The Packers have loaded up at defensive back with six cornerbacks and six safeties, and first round pick Kenny Clark expects to contribute immediately on the defensive line. The Packers have a solid linebacking corps again, led by Clay Matthews on the outside along with Julius Peppers and Jake Ryan. Green Bay should improve on its 10th ranking in yards allowed last year. Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator, Todd Walsh, and several new players on defense due to free-agent signings and rookies. The Jaguars signed former Broncos tackle, Malik Jackson, to add to an already solid front, and rookie Myles Jack should be a big help at linebacker. The Jags also made improvements in the secondary, including signing free safety Tashaun Gipson. Jacksonville was 18th in total yards gained in 2015. Blake Bortles threw for  35 touchdowns, however, he also led the league with 18 interceptions. T.J. Yeldon is back after averaging 4.1 yards per carry, and the Jaguars signed Chris Ivory, who led the AFC with 1,070 rushing yards. The offensive line is still a work in progress as the Jags try to mix and match positions and players. Green Bay has gone UNDER the posted total 11 of its last 15 games. The Packers have the clear talent edge in this matchup even with the Jaguars' defensive improvements. Play the Packers on the money line and also the UNDER.

The Jacksonville Jaguars head to Lambeau Field after falling to 1-5 on the season last week. The Jags blew a sizable lead vs. Oakland, bowing in overtime. This is a bad team that has become worse because of a lot of key injuries. With their record, and yet another loss, and the injuries, no one wants to touch this team. And of course, the public loves the Packers. While I can't list any reasons why the Jags would be competitive in this game, that doesn't matter. The Jags have been competitive when least expected including last week (we were on them and got the ATS win). Remember that Jacksonville went to Minnesota and gave the 5-3 Vikings all they could handle in a 26-23 overtime loss. After struggling to find their offense, the Packers have broken out and to average 33.3 points per game over their last three. Just as the offense begins to carry the team, the defense which was keeping them competitive has lost their way yet again. The Pack’s stop-unit is allowing over 25 points per game in their last four. These huge pointspreads often look so easy for the favorites, as they should destroy and exploit the bad team. But, it doesn't always work out that way (ask the Patriots last week). These spread assuem that the big favorite will bring their "A" game, which rarely occurs. Since 1989 there have been 97 NFL games that have played to a line greater than two TDs (more than 14 points). In those games, the favorite is a woeful 39-57-1 ATS, covering just 40.6% of the time. It might look easy, but it likely won't be. Take the bushel of points and play on Jacksonville.

These two teams certainly had designs on the playoffs when the season started. Both have evolved into candidates for "most dissapointing" team of the year. And it's only getting worse, not better. The Jags have now lost six of their last seven, and the Packers have now lost five of their last six. The Jags look like a team that has quit, or at least had their confidence shaken, especially on the offensive end. They simply have no downfield threat to exploit what has turned into a Packers weakness, the secondary. The Jags offense has been bad, scoring just 53 points in the last four weeks. In over two months of football, they have reached 20 points just once, against the 0-13  Lions. Aaron Rodgers may be hitting the wall for the Packers. As the pressure has mounted on him to carry the team, he has faltered. He threw just five INT's in his first nine games, but has now thrown six in the last four games. The Packers have been able to get their points, but they have been doing so playing from behind. It is more likely that Ryan Grant will be called upon more here, as the Jags offense isn't doing anything, and the Packers can play the running game to take the pressure off of Rogers. I look for this one to be tight, and low scoring. The Jags have played eight of their last eleven as a home dog to the UNDER, and that gets the call here.