Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders Point Spread Picks

Dan Campbell has never been one to play his starters much in the preseason, and Jared Goff won't be an exception again this afternoon. Detroit's offense runs through a backup group sorting out a new starting center after Cade Mays went down for roughly two months, with Joshua Dobbs stepping in behind Luke Altmyer, who handled the bulk of the snaps last week. Washington is playing it just as cautiously. Dan Quinn said this week he would be comfortable with Jayden Daniels never taking a preseason snap, and Washington is also down starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil, out after surgery on a torn triceps. Whichever arm plays behind that patchwork front, Sam Hartman or Athan Kaliakmanis, does it behind backup protection. Neither coach is treating this as a game to win with his best players, and the total still looks priced for teams bringing their top offensive weapons. But the backup units aren't equal. Hartman drove all three of Washington's first-half scoring drives last week, while Detroit leans on a new center and a Dobbs who has shown far less. Backup quarterbacks behind patched-together protection rarely string together long drives, and that same readiness gap gives Washington a live shot to win outright. Back the UNDER this afternoon — I like this one to land well clear of the number. Washington's moneyline comes along too, a longer price worth grabbing underneath it.

Washington upgraded the all-important quarterback position with Carson Wentz, who threw 4 TDs with 313 yards in the 28-22 Week 1 win over Jacksonville. Washington was 7-of-10 on third down while the defense held the Jaguars to 3-of-12 on third down. Washington is on a 7-2-1 spread run, 8-3 ATS after a victory, and 13-4-1 ATS after getting 350+ total yards in the last contest. Rebuilding Detroit has a good offensive line, rushing for 181 yards in the opener. But this is not a good matchup as Washington had a Top 10 defense versus the run last year in yards allowed and in yards per rush (4.1). And the Lions still have the same old lousy defense, giving up 38 points at home to Philadelphia in Week 1. The Eagles had 455 yards (216 rushing) and went 12-of-20 on third and fourth down. The Lions are 17-33 ATS at home after a game where both teams scored 24+ points, plus 6-17 ATS off a home loss by three or fewer points. NFL favorites like Detroit off of a losing campaign are also 137-211 ATS in conference games. Play Washington.