Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles Point Spread Picks

A pair of ace quarterbacks square off, but don't overlook these defenses. Detroit is seventh in the NFL in total yards allowed, 13th in points given up (22.2 per game), seventh on third down, and fourth in sacks (30). Philadelphia's defense ranks 10th in points allowed (21.3 per game), following a 10-7 victory at Green Bay. The Eagles have won three in a row, allowing an average of 16.3 points. Philadelphia is on a 9-5 run UNDER the total at home during the regular season. Play Detroit/Philadelphia UNDER the total. 

Slow-starting Philadelphia is a road favorite in the opener, though they lost six of their first nine last year and are 3-13 ATS in September. The Eagles are one-dimensional on offense looking to run behind QB Jalen Hurts with the passing game ranked #24 in yards. And the defense is below-average, #17 in points allowed last year, next to last in sacks per game, #23 in third-down defense. They allowed 28 TD passes with the NFL's worst completion rate (69.4 percent) allowed. Philadelphia is on a 5-11 spread run on the road. Detroit ended last season splitting its final six games playing hard for coach Dan Campbell. They added important new talent through the draft along with getting cornerback Jeff Okudah back after a season-ending injury in 2021. And they have a reliable veteran quarterback in Jared Goff beginning his second season in the Motor City. The Lions are on a 7-2 ATS run, including 4-1 ATS at home. Play Detroit.

The Detroit Lions keep shooting themselves in the foot as they threaten to win their first game, but they make crucial mistakes late in games. The Lions haven't scored more than 19 points since Week 1, and they are #24 in total yards gained. Detroit did cover last week against the Rams, but the Lions are 0-4 ATS following an ATS win. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 36 for 268 yards and 2 interceptions on Sunday and continues to have trouble closing games out. Detroit has the #22 pass defense in the league, and Matthew Stafford threw for 334 yards against his former team. Philadelphia is 2-5 while playing a formidable schedule, losing to Tampa Bay and at Las Vegas. Jalen Hurts has completed 61.2% of his passes for 1,716 yards and 10 touchdowns (4 INTs) for the Eagles. The Lions defense also has to be prepared for the run as Hurts has a team-leading 361 rushing yards with five touchdowns. Rookie receiver DeVonta Smith has 32 catches for 406 yards and a TD for Philly, and all of this will be too much for beleaguered Detroit. Play the Eagles.

These teams have gone OVER the last six times they've met although the last time was in 2016. Detroit took advantage of several miscues by the Chargers last week, including two missed field goals and Matthew Stafford completed 22-of-30 for 245 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Los Angeles outgained the Lions 424-339 and Philip Rivers threw for 293 yards. Philadelphia went OVER by 15 points in Week 1 before losing 24-20 at Atlanta when Matt Ryan torched the Eagles for 320 yards and three touchdowns although they did pick him off three times. The Lions have gone OVER in five of their last seven September games and they don't usually put on two good defensive performances in a row as they are 37-17-3 OVER in their last 57 games after giving up fewer than 15 points in their previous game. The OVER is 31-15 in Philly's last 46 games after a loss. Look for this matchup to soar OVER the total.

Carson Wentz is quickly becoming the talk of the league as he has the Eagles flying high and off to a 3-0 start. The NFL bye system may have greeted the Eagles at the wrong time, as they had a lot of momentum going, everything was breaking right for them, and then they had to sit out a week. History kind of bears that out as teams that are 3-0 and then have a bye, cover just 45% of the time in their next game. All that being said, the Eagles offense is a tick below average from the line of scrimmage, generating 5.6 yards per play vs. defenses that average allowing 5.7. It has been the defense that has been surprisingly good so far. Detroit is much better offensively, and has run the ball surprisingly well this season. Matt Stafford has done better against Philadelphia than any other team, where he owns a passer rating of 93, which is actually 137 at home. The Lions have also averaged 30.3 points per game against Philly in three games behind Stafford. This is a tough spot for Philly as they lost their momentum off a bye, and the next four games after this one show three in the division, and one against so-far unbeaten Minnesota. I think the Lions come ready at home, and spring the upset. Play Detroit on the moneyline.