Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

The Detroit Lions are No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (436.8 per game) behind QB Jared Goff (11 TDs, 3 INTs) and have covered three of four. Coach Dan Campbell said the offense would be more uptempo and they sure have been. They hung 45 points and 520 yards Sunday against Seattle. The Lions lost by just three points to Philadelphia, with the Eagles now the only undefeated team (4-0) in the NFL. Detroit is 13-3 ATS after a spread loss, plus 12-4 ATS on turf. They are an underdog to a 1-3 New England squad down to its third-stringer QB in rookie Bailey Zappe. The Patriots have had some offensive struggles while the defense is #19 in yards allowed, #21 in points surrendered, and #28 on third down. Play Detroit as a Max Play.

Defending champion New England has nothing to prove. They won't risk an injury to QB Tom Brady and the offense lost star TE Rob Gronkowski. They've added a slew of wide receivers, too, so the defense is far ahead of the offense. Last preseason the Patriots averaged 15.5 points per game in their two road games, including a 25-14 loss in their road opener at Carolina. They head to Detroit, a team coached by Matt Patricia, the former defensive coordinator for Bill Belichick. The two met last season and Patricia's Lions shut down the Pats in a 26-10 win in Detroit in Week 3 as Brady had just 133 passing yards. So yes, Patricia knows a lot about how Belichick coaches! Patricia improved the Detroit defense last season to #10 in yards allowed and against the run, plus #16 in points surrendered. After a 6-10 inaugural campaign including 0-2 at home in preseason, look for a strong all-around effort from the home team with the champs in town in a game featuring more defense than offense. Play Detroit and also take the UNDER for a Max Play.

Detroit has continued its preseason success by winning the first two games this year and the Lions have won seven of their last 10 preseason games since 2015. Matthew Stafford was 8-of-10 for 84 yards and a touchdown for the Lions in their 16-6 win over the Jets on Saturday and their defense held New York to just two first-half first downs. New England is searching for its first win, and the Super Bowl champs have allowed 58 points their first two games, including a 27-23 loss at Houston last week. Tom Brady sat out the first game, but played two series against the Texans and went six of nine for 67 yards. Jimmy Garappolo was 15-of-23 with one interception for 145 yards and Jacoby Brissett was 5-of-10 for 36 yards. Detroit backup quarterback Jake Rudock was 8-of-13 for 84 yards and Brad Kaaya went four of seven for 38 yards. The Lions blew a chance to win the NFC North last year when they lost their final three regular season games and they have motivation to keep their fans excited at home on Friday. Take the points on the Lions.

The New England Patriots appeared to be in decline in the early going as they started the season just 2-2. Tom Brady looked suddenly older, and the offense was generating just 20 points per game. That has proven to be just a little tailspin as the Pats have emerged over the last six weeks to go 6-0, beating Denver and Indianapolis in back-to-back games. After throwing just four TD passes in the first four games, Tom Brady has thrown for 20 in the last six games, and that offense that went for 20 ppg early has been averaging 40.8 ppg since. The defense has not allowed more than 25 points in any of the six games, despite playing Denver and Indianapolis who scored 20 and 21, respectively. Detroit comes in at 7-3 and has played great on defense, but that hasn't mattered to New England lately. The problem here for Detroit is an offense that has not scored more than 24 points since their opening game, and just 17 ppg in their last nine. The Lions' last three wins have come by a total of 6 points, and last week they did not find the end-zone. New England is now 71-31-2 ATS following a game where they gained more than 350 yards. Detroit is just 2-11 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams with great QBs (teams like NE that complete 64%+). This line of 7 is a sweet spot for the Patriots under Bill Belichick. During his tenure, the Pats are 63-42 ATS to a line of -3.5 to -9.5 and 27-14 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Lay the points on New England.