Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Detroit has a schedule advantage as it had the week off while the Dolphins were going overtime against Chicago. Ryan Tannehill is day-to-day with a shoulder injury, but the Dolphins might start Brock Osweiler no matter what after he went 28-of-44 for 380 yards against the Bears. The Lions dodged a bullet with Kerryon Johnson, who initially was thought to have suffered a major ankle injury, but he is expected to play this week. Detroit is hoping Johnson can finally solve their problem at running back as the Lions have lacked a great one for nearly two decades. Matthew Stafford was 14-of-26 for 183 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions in his team's 31-23 win over Green Bay. Johnson rushed for 70 yards on 12 carries before his injury in the fourth quarter. Surprisingly, Miami racked up 541 yards of offense against what was thought to be one of the best defenses in the league while averaging 5.2 yards per carry versus the Bears. However, Chicago was no slouch either with 467 yards of offense. The Lions have gone OVER in four of their five games this season and six of their last eight road games dating to last season. The Dolphins are 7-2 OVER their last nine home games. Detroit has covered the spread its last four games and it's a small favorite in this matchup. Go with the Lions on the moneyline and the OVER.

The Detroit Lions have turned things around, at least on the defensive side of the ball. The problem remains the offense. They will get a lift with Calvin Johnson back in the lineup. Buyt, it might take some time to get timing down for him and Stafford to connect, especially vs. a Miami defense that has been stout all season. There is a bigger problem for Detroit here though. Stafford has been sacked 24 times this season, and 14 of them have come in the last four games. His offensive line has been utterly bad, and without much of a running game, Miami is going to be putting a lot of heat on him. The Lions' defense will be without a very key player in Nick Fairley, who is out with a knee injury. Miami is not only playing very well right now, they have been one of the best road dogs in the NFL, compiling a sterling 18-3 ATS mark in their last 21 on the road as a dog of less than 5 points. The Dolphins have quietly put up 26.4 points per game this season while holding opponents to just 18.9 per game. Those are elite numbers that remain under the radar. In the Matt Stafford era, the Lions are 17-24 ATS as a favorite They certainly have a chance to win this one, and appear to have it all going, and are the better team. Play on Miami.

Forgive us if we are not yet believers in the Miami Dolphins. We know they are the talk of the town having won three straight games. But let's look at those three games. They beat Kansas City but scored just 13 points. They throttled the Chicago Bears but benefited from six Chicago turnovers. Then last week they had a "false" win over Minnesota. The Fins scored 2 defensive touchdowns in that game, returning a Minnesota fumble for a touchdown for the win. Of their 68 points the past three weeks, 21 have come from the defense. That leaves 15.7 per game from the offense - over their "great" run. Prior to that they were averaging 14.6 per game. So, this offense has shown over the course of 10 weeks, the ability to score about 15 points per game. Detroit's offense is averaging over 18 per game. We know Miami has the better defense. But should this team be laying 3 points on the road on Thanksgiving? We think not. Miami's defense is a bit banged up with SS Travares TIllman out and CB Will Allen questionable for this game. Backing Detroit is a tough pill to swallow after watching them lose two straight to San Francisco and Arizona. But that's exactly why we are getting value on them here. In each of those games, they lost the turnover battle notching 5 total to just 1 against. Both games were winnable. This one is too.