Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders Point Spread Picks

Both teams come off bad losses, but in different ways as Las Vegas got blown out by Chicago, one of the worst teams in the league, and the Lions lost to a very good team 38-6 to Baltimore as they had no answers for Lamar Jackson's running and passing. Detroit still is 5-2 and it leads the NFC North and it has covered four straight following a loss and four in a row as a favorite. The Raiders are a pitiful 1-3 on the road getting outscored by an average of 14-27. They don't bounce back well as they are 1-5 ATS their past six games after totaling fewer than 250 yards their previous game. Josh McDaniels is perpetually on the hot seat as coach of Las Vegas as his teams haven't been able to run the ball and they are plagued by missed tackles and penalties. The Lions put up 31 points per game in this building and are 24-9 ATS their past 33 games, 7-2 ATS after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game and 9-2 ATS after a loss of more than 14 points. Also, Detroit is 16-5 ATS its past 21 home games and Dan Campbell is 10-2 ATS after a defensive embarrassment in which his team gave up 30+ points. Take the Lions in this mis-match.

Jon Gruden is making progress in Oakland. His team is only 3-4 on the season but the losses have come to Green Bay, Houston, Kansas City, and Minnesota. Those four teams are a combined 23-9 on the season. He also owns a win vs. division leader Indianapolis. The schedule has been very strong and this will be the first time all season he takes the field as a favorite. The Lions started strong at 2-0-1 but have since been 1-3. The Lions are allowing 29.3 points per game over their last six. The Lions allow 420 yards per contest and the Oakland offense is averaging 6.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams allowing 5.7. They should be putting up a lot of points here. Play on Oakland.

Jon Gruden takes over as coach of the Raiders and not only will he be excited for his team to give a good showing in his first game, but he is 30-16 straight-up and 25-19-2 ATS in his preseason career. Oakland has spent a lot to improve its offensive line and it picked up Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant to help out at wide receiver. Khalil Mack still is holding out and there are rumblings that the defensive end might be traded. Derek Carr did not have as good a season as he had the year before, but Gruden did hire veteran coordinator Greg Olson, who was with the Raiders in Carr's rookie season to help him get back to 2016 form. Backing up Carr is Connor Cook and E.J. Manuel. Cook is noteworthy for being the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first career start in a playoff game. He completed 18-of-45 passes for 161 yards as the Raiders lost 27-14 in the 2016 season's AFC Wild Card Game. EJ Manuel is in his sixth season and started 17 games for Buffalo from 2013-2016 and he appeared in two games for Oakland in 2017. Detroit, as usual, will have a big question mark with the running game and no matter how effective QB Matt Stafford is and how much they pay him, nothing much will change until the Lions can get a dependable guy in the backfield, especially in short-yardage situations. Jake Rudock and Matt Cassel back up Stafford and Rudock appeared in one game in 2017 and went 3-for-5 for 24 yards. Cassel is in his 14th season and is remembered for filling in for the injured Tom Brady in 2008 and playing all 16 games while the Patriots finished 11-5, but didn't make the playoffs. Cassel has been with Tennessee the last two years and appeared in six games. The Lions have a new coach in Matt Patricia, but Oakland has the motivation in its favor in this matchup. Take the Raiders.

The Detroit Lions got a huge monkey off their backs last week, as they finally won at Green Bay for the first time since 1991. It isn't as though they didn't try to give the game to the Packers. Detroit missed two extra points and lost an onside kick, but somehow managed to hang on. They will have a hard time getting up the energy for Oakland after such a huge emotional win. It isn't as though the win fixed all the things that are broken. The Lions gained fewer than 300 yards against a team that had given up almost 500 yards per game in their last three, and the Detroit offense has not topped the 19-point mark but once in their last eight games. Oakland broke a stretch of three straight games where they scored 30+ points, but they have surrounded those three games by scoring 20,10, and 14 points, so I wouldn't say that they have found all the answers just yet either. However, the Raiders are an improved team from what we have seen over the last decade of futility. They are catching a bad team at the right time. The Lions offense hasn't been able to score on anyone, and I think Oakland gets enough here to win and cover a lower-scoring game than indicated. The Raiders are off a strong defensive effort, and after allowing 150 yards or fewer in the air, they are 5-0 ATS in the last five occurrences, as well as 6-1 to the UNDER to the same situation. The Lions have dropped five straight at home ATS, and Detroit is also now 12-3 to the UNDER in their last 15 after gaining fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Since the arrival of Derek Carr, the Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS followign a big 14+ point loss. And over the past three seasons, Detroit is 8-21 ATS after September and 3-11 ATS following a win. Under Jim Caldwell, the Lions are 5-15 ATS on short rest. Take Oakland as my November Game of the Month and the UNDER in this one.

After opening at home, Detroit heads 3,000 miles to the West Coast, so this is a tough situational spot for their new coach. And their new coach, Jim Caldwell, is from the Tony Dungy tree, meaning that he cares little for preseason. Caldwell is 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS in August as a head coach. The Raiders coach Dennis Allen has plenty to prove, and has not been happy this week after a sloppy 10-6 loss in Minnesota in their preseason opener. The Raiders plan to be a run-heavy team, and Maurice Jones-Drew (four touches for 24 yards), Darren McFadden (23-yard run) and Latavius Murray (seven carries for 28 yards) are all looking good. This team has been accumulating a ton of high draft picks in recent years, and the new-look defense finished with 6 sacks. The QB rotation has a lot of NFL experience with Matt Schaub, Trent Edwards and Matt McGloin, so look for a big effort by the home team in its home opener. Go with Oakland.