Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Detroit coach Dan Campbell said the Lions may play more starters on the defensive side of the ball for this one. They allowed just 14 points last week and held the Giants to 2-of-11 on third down. After suffering a loss in the first preseason game last year by double-digits, the Lions won at Carolina, 26-17, forcing 4 turnovers. Kansas City has nothing to prove and coach Andy Reid has a losing record in Week 2 of preseason. They showed little last week in a 26-13 loss to Jacksonville. The Chiefs scored 3 second-half points and backup QBs Chris Oladokun and Ian Book took 4 sacks. Play Detroit as a Max Play.

The Detroit Lions finally turned a corner with a winning record last year. They were one of only five NFC teams that had a positive point differential (+26). The offense was fourth in total yards behind QB Jared Goff (29 TDs, 7 INTs), Top 11 in both rushing and passing, plus fifth in points (26.6 per game). The Lions are on a 23-11 spread run, including 20-9 ATS as an underdog. Kansas City is the marquee public team, and has been overvalued, failing to cover seven straight home games in the first half of the season. For this opener, they'll be without two of their best players in All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce (knee). In 2023, Kelce was eighth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,338), second in TDs (12), and third in receptions (110). The Chiefs are on a 6-10-1 ATS spread run, including 4-7-1 as chalk of -5 points or higher. And NFL favorites that had a 75% winning percentage or higher while winning six or more of their final eight in the previous year are 24-55 ATS in the first month of the new campaign versus teams that are off winning seasons. Play Detroit. 

Kansas City overhauled the defense in the offseason but not much has changed, as the Chiefs are #23 in yards allowed, and #26 against the run while allowing 137.7 yards rushing per contest. At least the offense is stockpiled with speed and talent behind QB Patrick Mahomes (10 TDs, no picks), ranked second in total yards, third in points (33.7 per game). Kansas City is on an 8-3 run OVER the total, as well as 16-5 OVER on the road. They will do well indoors in this game against a Detroit defense that is #22 in yards allowed, and is 7-3 OVER the total at home against teams with a winning road record. All of which means and offensive show. Play the OVER.

Things have changed for the Lions since their last trip to London, when they came from way behind to win, and shared the best record in the NFL. This time the Lions are tied for the worst record in the league. Detroit lost some key cogs in their defense from last season's squad. While they didn't want to pay the price to keep them, they are paying the price on the field with a defense that is allowing 28.6 points per game. The Chiefs at 2-5 have not done much better on the defensive end, as they are allowing 24.6 ppg. That may be good news for Matthew Stafford and the Lions who are 20-13 to the OVER when facing a defense that allows 21.6 to 27.6 points per game, with the Lions scoring 25.9 ppg. Stafford reallhy struggled early-on but has really come on. In the first four games, he averaged just 246 passing yards. The last three he as improved that to 322. Alex Smith has done a good job of carving up bad defenses where he has led the Chiefs to 26.9 ppg vs. a defense allowing 25.6 to 31.6 points per game. Since Andy Reid came to town, the Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 OVER when facing a really bad defense (teams like Detroit that allow 64%+ completions to opposing QBs). All in all the numbers and situation are favorable for a lot of points to be scored. Make the play on the OVER in London as my NFL Totals Game of the Month. Cheerio!