Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

The Denver Broncos won for the first time this season last week. The biggest reason was three Charger turnovers - the only three recorded by Denver this season. Since opening the season scoring 43 points vs. Cleveland, the Titans have scored just 51 points over their last four games. The good news is that their consistently strong defense that has allowed just 76 points through five games at 15.2 points per game. It is hardly imaginable that the weak Denver offense can score much at all here. The Titans do not tun the ball over much as they have committed just one turnover all season. Take Tennessee.

The maturation of Marcus Mariota has made the Tennesssee Titans into a contender in the elite starved AFC South. Mariota, for his career, has an impressive stat, having not thrown an interception in the red-zone in his career. He will be as challenged as he ever has in this contest. Denver has a lot of struggles on offense, but the pass defense is the best in the league, allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play, to teams that average seven. That will make life a lot more difficult for Mariota and Co. in this one. Denver on the other hand, behind Paxton Lynch, generated a grand total of just 206 yards of offense last week vs. 2-10 Jacksonville. The Titans have played eight of their last nine OVER the total, but have not faced a team with a winning record in their last seven games, and did not play an OVER in their first three games of the season, all vs. teams better than .500 where they scored a grand total of 42 points. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Denver Broncos have been scoring machines for the most part this season, but this is going to be a tough one. This will be especially daunting on QB Peyton Manning. Manning has had well-documented struggles in the playoffs, primarily because of cold weather. We saw it this season in New England a couple of weeks ago - a game in which Manning passed for just 132 yards, by far his lowest total of the season. The temperature at game time in Denver is supposed to be in the low teens and Manning has not fared well starting games in sub-freezing weather. He owns a passer rating of 96.8 when the temperature at game time is greater than 40, but when it is less than 32 it drops off the charts to 70.7. His TD, INT and completion percentages all fall with the temperature. In his career in games with a temperature below 40, Manning is just 10-12 in his career. Denver doesn't run the ball well especially when Manning isn't keeping defenses honest, so the offense is quite likely to be less than what we have seen all season. Tennessee has enough defense to ensure that the Broncos have full resistance, and enough offense to stay inside the long number. The Titans have just one loss by 10 or more all season, and have gone 6-1 ATS after a loss in their last seven. The points won't come as freely here for Denver, so play on Tennessee and the UNDER.