Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

San Francisco hosts Denver today after allowing 30 to Arizona last Sunday, when Jacoby Brissett threw 52 passes. Nick Bosa is out with a calf injury, and defensive end Mykel Williams and defensive tackle James Thompson Jr. are out with him. Mike Evans is questionable with a rib injury and did not practice Thursday. The 49ers are 3-0 and score 32.7 points a game, second in the league, and their 62.96 percent third-down conversion rate is first. That offense is real, and Denver's answer has to come from the other side of the ball: the Broncos beat the Rams, the league's top yardage offense, 30-26 last Sunday, with Bo Nix throwing two touchdowns. Denver ranks 29th in total yards and 31st in rushing at 81.0 a game, and that is the standing risk on this side. But the Broncos' defense allows 23.3 points a game (17th), and with three defensive linemen out, San Francisco's pass rush has less to work with. Denver is the bet on the spread, and I'm putting full weight behind it.

San Francisco heads out on the road after struggling in Week 1 in their other road game, losing 19-10 at Chicago as a TD favorite. QB Trey Lance (ankle) is out with an injury so backup Jimmy Garoppolo will start. Star TE George Kittle has yet to play with a groin injury. The 49ers are 12-27 ATS on the road after allowing 9 points or fewer in the last game, plus 22-38 ATS away after a win by 14+ points. Denver's defense has been terrific, Top 10 in yards allowed and third in points surrendered (18.9 ppg). The 49ers prefer balance on offense but the Denver defense is third against the run. New QB Russell Wilson (2 TDs, 1 INT) leads a balanced Bronco offense that has thrown more than it has passed with the ground attack averaging 4.9 yards per carry. They've struggled in the red zone so far but that will change as there are so many talented pieces. Play Denver.

Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to see some action for the first time since his ACL injury last season, but Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard will get most of the snaps following the 49ers' 17-9 win over Dallas in the first week of preseason. Beathard finished 13 of 17 for 141 yards and a touchdown while Mullens was 11 of 17 for 105 yards, evening Kyle Shanahan's preseason record at 4-4-1 ATS. Denver lost to Seattle in Vic Fangio's second game as head coach, and the Broncos' quarterback depth isn't nearly as experienced with Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan, and Brett Rypien. Lock finished 17 of 28 for 180 yards against the Seahawks while Hogan completed 3 of 7 for 27 yards. Joe Flacco played one series and was 3 of 4 for 19 yards, and he doesn't expect to see much action in this matchup. The Broncos are still adjusting to a new coach and offense while San Francisco wants to continue to build a winning attitude after last year's disappointment and Garoppolo's injury. Take the 49ers.

Denver has won three straight, but it's still less than a touchdown favorite against the 2-10 49ers. That is due to the possibility of it being a flat spot for the Broncos after a big home win over Pittsburgh and then winning on the road 24-10 at Cincinnati. Rookie Phillip Lindsay rushed for a career-high 157 yards and two touchdowns and Case Keenum completed 12-of-21 passes for 151 yards. San Francisco quarterback Nick Mullens finished 30-of-48 for 414 yards, but the Niners couldn't get their running game going, rushing for only 66 yards on 2.9 per carry. Still, Mullens performed well considering Seattle is one of the toughest places to play and now he gets another chance at home. The Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS their last 18 games after allowing 15 or fewer points in their previous game and San Francisco has covered the number five of its last seven December games. Surprisingly, these teams have similar offensive statistics with Denver averaging 365.7 total yards and 23.0 points compared to 363.2 and 21.2 for the 49ers. The points loom large in this matchup, so take the 49ers.