Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

New England has gone OVER six of its past seven games, and Denver is on a 5-2 OVER run. The Broncos have gone OVER seven of their past 10 January games. There is obvious concern about Jarrett Stidham taking over at quarterback following Bo Nix's injury. Still, if there is any coach who can make adjustments, it is Sean Payton, who has plenty of experience in these situations. Stidham will have some advantages, such as playing at home, and he is familiar with the system as he has been with the team since 2023. He is playing behind an offensive line that allowed just 23 sacks this season, and that is tied for the fewest in the league. Drake Maye threw for 179 yards and three TDs with one interception as the Patriots went OVER while defeating Houston 28-16. The weather forecast is temperatures in the teens, but no snow to speak of. Denver is 5-1 OVER its past six following a win, and New England is 5-1 OVER its past six against AFC opponents. Since 2020, great teams at .700 or higher coming off back-to-back home wins are 59-28 (68%) to the OVER. And, number one seeds in the playoffs that are off back-to-back ATS wins are 43-19 (69%) to the OVER. Take the OVER in this one.

Denver was playing its third straight road game and it showed as the Broncos were dominated by Detroit and lost 42-17. The Broncos had recorded several good defensive performances after allowing 70 points to Miami early in the season and had seven UNDERS in eight games before Saturday's loss. New England covered the number for the second straight game, but lost 27-17 to Kansas City after beating Pittsburgh the week before. Bailey Zappe had a decent game in his third straight start for the Patriots completing 23 of 31 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown with an interception. The Broncos are 1-8 ATS their past nine games in Week 16, 17-36-1 ATS as home favorites of 3.5-10.0 points and 5-16-1 ATS as favorites overall. Denver is 11-5 UNDER after a loss and 46-22-1 UNDER its past 69 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots are 36-17 UNDER following a loss and 24-8 ATS after totaling fewer than 250 yards their previous game. Take the Patriots as a Max Play and the UNDER as a Max Play.