Denver Broncos vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

Denver has lost two games by a total of three points and almost pulled out a win against Washington last week before losing 35-33 on a failed 2-point converion attempt. Russell Wilson is showing signs of improvement after last year's debacle and he threw for 308 yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders. The Broncos will try to get over the hump as they travel to face the Dolphins, who held off New England to win 24-17 with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 249 yards and a TD and Raheem Mostert ran for 121 yards and two TDs. Obviously, the Broncos will have a tough challenge, but they have covered four of five as underdogs dating to last season and Sean Payton has not lost three in a row many times in his coaching career. Miami is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and the Dolphins have gone UNDER five straight as favorites. Miami is 11-4 its past 15 September games and Denver is 9-1 UNDER its past 10 in the first four games of the season and the Broncos are 13-5 UNDER on the road overall. Look for Wilson to finally play effectively for an entire game after completing 85 percent of his passes in the first half this season and 56 percent in the second half. Take the points with the Broncos as a Max Play and the UNDER.

The oddsmaker keeps overvaluing Denver, even though it is only 3-6 while losing three of its last four games and allowing an average of 36 points in those games. Drew Lock threw four interceptions in the 37-12 loss at Las Vegas while completing only 23 of 47 for 257 yards. Meanwhile, Brian Flores continues to do a terrific job at Miami as his team has won and covered five in a row following its 29-21 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 169 yards and two scores and now is 3-0 in his three starts since taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Salvon Ahmed made his first career start and ran for 85 yards on 21 carries for the Dolphins. Miami is averaging only 318.1 total yards per game, but it's taking advantage of its possessions and averaging 27.9 points. The Broncos are #26 in total offense yards, and the defense is having trouble staying off the field. The Dolphins are on a 16-5 ATS run, and they have covered four of their last five road contests. These teams are going in different directions. Play the Dolphins.

For some the news of Jay Cutler back at QB is going to be met with boos. For others, they will see hope that a troubled offense can be rejuvenated. My look and take here is that the Miami defense has been in a state of regression since Game 6. Through five games the Dolphins' stop-unit had allowed a stingy 14.8 points per game, but since then they have been getting beat every week and have allowed 34.2 ppg and every team has hit them for 27 or more. The once proud Denver defense isn't what it used to be as this team is on the field a lot, and has regressed significantly as the season has progressed. Denver has allowed 32.4 ppg of their own over the last five games. The total is set pretty much as low as you will see in a modern NFL game, and both of these teams will have ample opportunities to score. Take the OVER.

The Broncos lost badly last week in St. Louis, but they lost more than a game. This team was already suffering from injuries and things got worse. Julius Thomas is questionable with an ankle injury and Emmanuel Sanders has been downgraded to doubtful with a concussion. Monte Ball and Ronnie Hillman are out. That is a boatload of yardage, either hampered or out, as well as 23 TDs missing from the offense. Peyton Manning has also been slumping as he has thrown six INTs in his last three games. He has done very poorly this year when under pressure and Miami can bring the pressure. Miami will be the best defense the Broncos have seen, coming at a time when the offense is missing some key cogs. Miami has held opposing QBs to a 76 passer rating this season (best in the league) and that includes games against Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. The defensive line has been disruptive with 30 sacks on the season. Denver's defense is pretty good, but it benefits from an offense that can keep them off the field enough to be effective, and a banged up offense will also effect the defense in a negative way. Miami has allowed 11.2 points per game over their last five games, and they haven't lost a game the last seven weeks by more than 3 points. Take the points on Miami.