Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Two terrific defenses clash, and one team is without its star quarterback. Denver's defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards allowed, second against the run, No. 1 on third down (33.5%), and fifth in points allowed (19.7 per game). The Broncos beat the Chiefs and QB Patrick Maholmes last month, 22-19, in a game that sailed UNDER. Kansas City is now without Maholmes and comes into this contest off a 26-9 loss to Tennessee. They had just 133 total yards using QBs Chris Oladokun and Gardner Minshew. Backup Minshew was knocked out of the game with a knee injury. The defense is 10th in yards allowed, ninth against the run, and fourth in points given up (19.6 per game). The Chiefs are on an 11-3 run UNDER the total. Take Denver/Kansas City UNDER the total. 

Both the Chiefs and Broncos have better ratings on defense than they do on offense. Kansas City is fourth in scoring defense (17.7 points per game) and sixth in total defense (291.8 yards per game). Denver gives up the third-fewest yards (270.7 per game) and third-fewest points per game (17.3). The Broncos have allowed a league-low eight passing TDs, and Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 300-plus yards in just one of nine starts this season. Bo Nix and Denver's offense have come under a lot of scrutiny after managing only 10 points against a tired Raiders defense playing on a short week last Thursday. Nix seems skittish in the pocket. He shows signs of regression from his rookie season. Kansas City's defense concedes a league-low 1,019 yards to wide receivers, and Nix is likely to be without his best running back, J.K. Dobbins. He sustained a foot injury against the Raiders. The last four meetings in this series have all gone UNDER. That is the way to go here. Take the UNDER.

Combine the Boilermakers (-300) and the Broncos (-600) into a 2-team parlay at -180 odds.

Combine the Chiefs (-380) and the Bulldogs (-2000) into a 2-team parlay at -306 odds.

6-1 vs. 2-5. This is a no-brainer, right? Bettors certainly think so, with 65% of the bets in this one coming in on the mighty Chiefs. They can see the two or three TD blowout already. But I see this playing out differently. No matter how much Denver struggles it always seems to keep it close against division foe Kansas City. The Broncos had covered three straight meetings before losing 19-8 to the Chiefs on Oct. 12, missing the fourth straight cover by a half-point. Denver got their second win of the season 19-17 over Green Bay on Sunday when Will Lutz kicked a go-ahead 52-yard field goal with 3:50 left. Denver had a 339-331 edge in total yards and Russell Wilson had his most efficient performance of the season completing 20 of 29 for for 194 yards with no interceptions and a touchdown. The Broncos appear to finally be improving under new coach Sean Payton and they are 10-1 ATS the past 11 years in Week 8. The good news is KC will be hard pressed not to underestimate the Broncos here. Kansas City is 7-19 ATS after scoring more than 30 points its previous game and 8-20-1 ATS overall as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Dating back to last season, Kansas City is just 1-8 ATS after a double-digit win. The Denver defense has come a long way since giving up 70 points against Miami as the Broncos have allowed 23.8 points its past four games. Denver has allowed just 18 points per game in division games this season. Sean Payton coached teams step up in the underdog role, going 49-31 ATS overall including 25-12 ATS in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. He's also 18-5 ATS in same-season revenge games. Take the points with the Broncos as my Game of the Month.