Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Jacksonville's offense looked the part in its opener, scoring 34 points without giving the ball away once, and Denver's defense is coming off a game where it allowed Kansas City 31 points. That combination alone puts real weight on the OVER. Denver's own offense managed just 10 points in that loss, the one honest concern here, but it came against a Chiefs defense that's a different level of test than what Jacksonville's defense showed last week. The Jaguars held Cleveland to 10 points, but Cleveland's own offense was one of the worst on the board in Week 1, which makes that number less a measure of Jacksonville's defense and more a measure of who it was facing. Denver gets a step up in competition on that side of the ball today, and I'd expect more than 10 points from a Broncos offense playing at home. The money's already leaning toward the over relative to the ticket count, and I'm on the same side. Back the OVER today.

Jacksonville head coach Liam Coen is a leading candidate for the NFL Coach of the Year award as his Jaguars have won and covered five in a row and lead the AFC South at 10-4. They come off a 48-20 rout of the Jets with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 330 yards and five TDs plus rushing for a score. The defense also shone with three interceptions, and the Jaguars have now allowed only 14.4 points per game over their past five. Denver has won 11 in a row as it continues to win close games. The Broncos have won seven games by four points or less, although they do come off a 34-26 victory over Green Bay. Jacksonville is 9-4-1 ATS while Denver is 6-7-1 ATS. Denver is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 Week 16 games and 2-5 ATS in its past seven games after totaling more than 350 yards in its previous game. The Broncos are 9-2 UNDER against the AFC South. Denver allows 18.6 points per game compared to 20.9 for Jacksonville. Take the Jaguars and the UNDER.

Denver is last in the league in scoring with only 14.3 points per game and Russell Wilson looks like a $245 million-dollar bust even when he is playing and he didn't last week as he was out with a hamstring injury. Brett Rypien filled in and he went 24 of 46 for 225 yards with an interception as the Broncos lost another ugly game 16-9 to Jets. The Broncos actually outgained New York 324-260, but they were shut out in the second half. Wilson is probable this week as if it makes any difference as first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett has made some questionable in-game decisions and hasn't been able to get much production from Wilson. Jacksonville has lost four straight, but the Jaguars have been in every one of those games and last week came within inches of beating the Giants. Trevor Lawrence threw for 310 yards and the Jags totaled 452 total yards of offense while coming up just short at the end. Jacksonville's defense has been decent and the Jaguars are #11 in the league in scoring defense and #13 in rushing yards allowed. Denver is 3-12 ATS its past 15 games versus the AFC and 3-8 ATS its past 11 games overall. This game is being played in London. Take the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is anxious to atone for last week's debacle when the Jaguars had 10 penalties, six dropped passes, and three turnovers. Trevor Lawrence was 28 of 51 passing for 332 yards, but he had three interceptions. Now that he has a game under his belt, coach Urban Meyer thinks Lawrence will be more comfortable, especially in improvising as he did at Clemson. Denver beat the Giants last week as Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 TD passes in his first start for the Broncos, who piled up 165 rushing yards, including 101 by Melvin Gordon III. Jacksonville went OVER by 12.5 points and had 395 total net yards, but it was stymied by the turnovers. If the Jaguars can keep that problem in check, they will stay within the number while putting more points on the board. The teams last met in 2019, and Jacksonville came out a 26-24 winner. Denver is 6-13-1 ATS its past 20 games as a favorite. The Jaguars have gone OVER four of their past five September games and six of seven in Week 2. The OVER is also 5-1 in Jacksonville's last six games after an ATS loss. Take the Jaguars to cover and also play the OVER.

Jacksonville is playing stellar defense, allowing 20 total points the last two games. They come off a 20-7 win over Tennessee as a home dog allowing 3.5 yards per carry to the run-oriented Titans. The defense is top 10 in points allowed, while backup QB Gardner Minshew (five TDs, one pick) has been a pleasant surprise. They match up well with a bumbling Denver team that has lost all three of its games scoring 14, 16 and 16 points. The anemic offense is #29 in points scored. The Broncos are 5-11 ATS against losing teams, on a 4-9-1 ATS run at home, and 8-20-1 ATS versus the AFC. They are also 7-19-1 on natural grass and 4-14 ATS when following a spread loss. Take the points on Jacksonville.