Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions Point Spread Picks

Denver has won six of seven and Sean Payton has gotten the Broncos on the right track after starting the season 1-5, including a humiliating 70-20 loss to Miami. The Broncos are on a 5-2 ATS run following Sunday's 24-7 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Russell Wilson threw for 224 yards and two touchdown passes and Denver outgained the Chargers 322-283. Detroit comes off a 28-13 loss to Chicago and the Lions and Jared Goff threw two more interceptions and they were outgained 336-267 by one of the worst offenses in the league and the game went UNDER by 3.5 points. Denver is 7-1 UNDER its past eight games as the defense has made a vast improvement since the Miami debacle. Meanwhile, Detroit's defense has been shaky all season and the Lions got away with it for awhile, but it's starting to cause big problems now. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS their past six games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points and they are 20-5-1 UNDER after allowing fewer than 15 points their previous game. Detroit is 11-5 UNDER following an ATS loss and 7-2 UNDER after scoring fewer than 15 points. Take the Broncos and the UNDER.

Coach Matt Patricia got some good news this week as Detroit decided to keep him on at least one more year. The Lions have an opportunity to get a win against an equally disappointing team in the Broncos. The Lions are getting nearly a touchdown against Denver, which comes off an ugly loss in the snow at Kansas City last week. Denver's latest quarterback, Drew Lock, was only 18-of-40 for 208 yards and an interception in the end zone. The Broncos were outgained 419-251 and Patrick Mahomes passed for 340 yards. Denver's offense is ranked only #27 in the league in yards gained while averaging 17.1 points. Detroit is #13 with 360.9 yards and averages 21.7 points. Detroit backup QB David Blough completed 24-of-43 for 260 yards against Tampa Bay. Blough is becoming more confident after making his NFL debut on Thanksgiving Day although he did throw two picks against the Buccaneers. Detroit is 11-4 ATS its last 15 games after a double-digit home loss and Denver is 1-7-1 ATS its last nine as a home favorite and 2-5 ATS its last seven December games. Look for Detroit to keep this one close so play the Lions.

The Detroit Lions have been a good story in 2011 although some of the sheen is wearing off. They ran off 13 straight wins, counting the preseason and the four games from the last four a year ago. They have finally met up with some adversity the past two weeks and stumbled hard. Their QB is banged up and it seems that at least some of the confidence is gone. Playing on the road as a road favorite can be tough to handle for a young, fragile team off two straight defeats. Denver got a minor miracle last week, getting shutout for over 56 minutes vs. Miami, then coming back to win in overtime with a pair of late scores. That certainly has to be a confidence boost for the Broncos. I am not sure yet what kind of QB Tebow will be, but right now he gives this team confidence. The Lions 5-0 start followed by back-to-back home losses rarely occurs in the NFL. Teams in that situation that are then posted as a road favorite vs. a team off a win are just 2-5 ATS since 1989 and have lost three outright. The Lions have issues stopping the ground game and in their last five games every opponent has topped the 110-yard mark on the ground. The Lions’ offense has gone south without Jahvid Best. He was the key ingredient and the last two weeks the Lions have managed just 16 and 19 points. This is a young, impressionable team, and right now there is some doubt creeping in. The Lions are also 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 7-18 ATS off an upset loss at home. Go with Denver in this one.