Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

The Dallas defense depended on takeaways to come away with a win over Philadelphia on Saturday and the Eagles have one of the best offenses in the league, but this week the Cowboys are playing Tennessee, which has averaged only 17.9 points this season while allowing 20.8. Dallas has allowed 20.2 points and the Titans will be starting Malik Willis again as Ryan Tannehill is out for the year and Derrick Henry is day-to-day with a hip injury. Tony Pollard (thigh) has the same status for the Cowboys as the teams prepare for a short week. Tennessee has gone UNDER seven of 10, including its 19-14 loss to Houston on Saturday when the total was only 33.5 points. Willis completed 14 of 23 for 99 yards and no touchdowns with two interceptions and he has failed to reach 100 passing yards in any of his first three starts. The UNDER is 10-2 in the Titans' past 12 home games and they are 16-5 UNDER after giving up fewer than 90 yards rushing their previous game. Take the UNDER - Max Play

The Dallas Cowboys scored 17 points last week against San Francisco. That was amazing, considering that the Niners have a great defense and Dallas fumbled three times and Tony Romo was picked off three times. That is a total of six possessions that were inhibited, or ended by miscues, not to mention the penalties that also killed Dallas. Expect the Cowboys offense to turn things around this week. Tennessee went to Kansas City and posted 26 points against a Chiefs team that did not allow any team to score more than 17 points through their first nine games last season. It could have been more as the Titans generated over 400 yards of offense. And with Jake Locker healthy, they certainly look like a better offense. I think there is value here with both offenses showing the ability to move the ball against good defenses, and will face a bit less resistance in this one. Dallas has played four of their last five on the road to the OVER, including four straight to a team with a winning record. The Titans have gone 6-1 to the OVER in their last seven at home. In his coaching career, Ken Wisenhunt is 16-6 OVER at home after an ATS win and 11-1 OVER following a game with a +2 or better turnover margin. Play on the OVER in this one.

The Dallas Cowboys are arguably the most talented team in the NFL position for position, yet they continue to struggle offensively although they have improved every week and may have had a break-through last game. Dallas has a trio of quality running backs, a very good quarterback, and good targets, as well as a solid offensive line. I think OC Garrett and Coach Phillips had not been managing this team properly, and it showed. The Dallas offense has scored 17 points or less in seven of their last 13 games. Those numbers are both below the NFL average, and the Cowboys certainly do not have a below-average offense. I think they get some points this game. But so will Tennessee. The Titans, since their 0-6 dreadful start a year ago, have only lost two of their last 14 games by more than one possession, and this season have averaged just shy of 25 points per game. They will find some room on the scoreboard here vs. the Cowboys, a team allowing 64% completions and 5.7 yards per play on the season. The Titans have been extremely good in spots like this as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 posted as a dog from 3.5-10. Dallas has been too inconsistent to buy into them as a TD favorite, and the numbers bear that out. In their last 16 games as a 7+ point favorite, Dallas is just 6-10 ATS. They have also not been able to put together back-to-back defensive efforts, showing at 4-10 ATS after allowing 15 or less in their previous game. The Titans are off their bye week which has historically shown them to play high-scoring games at 12-5-1 to the OVER, while Dallas is 11-4 to the OVER in their last 15 in the role of a favorite within the range of 3.5-10. Under Jeff Fisher, this team is 22-8 OVER after allowing 300+ passing yards last game and 28-15 OVER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65+ yards per play. I like Tennessee and the OVER.