Dallas Cowboys vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

Dallas is a puzzling team. When you look at the QB Tony Romo, who has one of the highest career passer ratings in NFL history, and the talent on both sides of the ball, it is hard to believe that this team is just 17-17 in their last 34 games. If not for the gift of six Giants turnovers in their opener, the Cowboys would be 0-2 coming into this game. Sometimes you have to wonder if the coaching staff is not doing a very good job with the level of talent present. They have a new stadium, one in which they should thrive in at home, but they are an ugly 2-10 ATS here in their last 12 games. They don't cover because they are a team that operates on a razor thin margin for error. The last 12 Cowboys' wins show five by 3 points or less, three others by 5 points, and a pair by a TD or less. St. Louis was a pick-6 away from being even with Atlanta on the road, and they out-gained the Falcons for the game. This is a team that is ready to breakthrough as Sam Bradford matures into a bona fide NFL QB. Before Bradford the Rams rarely went for 350+ yard in a game, but since his arrival they are now 10-2 ATS after going for 350+ in their previous contest. Through two weeks, the Rams look like the better team. This one should go to the wire, and the points will be big. Jeff Fisher is 60% ATS in his career as a dog. And, Dallas is a terrible favorite, having gone 7-21-1 ATS since 2010 when laying points. Take the Rams here.

How the hell can I back St. Louis, a team getting outscored 9.8 to 27.4 on average on the season? Actually, given the history of pointspreads in the NFL, the question should be how can you not back them? Any pick can be a win or a loss and picks on ugly dogs can lose ugly. But, history says the very beastly dog here is the way to go. I don't think there is much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one, but thanks to an inflated number, we have value taking the points on the Rams. When you get to this point of the season and a team hasn't notched a win, you automatically get extra line value on them. Add in a big loss last week in which St. Louis looked horrible and you get even more value. Dallas is off a huge emotional game vs. New England, a game they had for over 59 minutes, but in the end New England and Tom Brady once again worked their magic on their way to another win. I seriously doubt Dallas will be excited and focused after that one facing this Rams team. Winless teams from Week 6 come through blindly at a 62% clip ATS as their opponents often mail-in these games. Dallas has had more problems as a favorite than any team in the league of late as well, as they are a dismal 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 when giving points, including 1-7 ATS at home in that situation. I'm going with the ugly dog here and backing St. Louis.