Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks Point Spread Picks

Dak Prescott is in Schottenheimer's zero-snap tier Saturday, one of twenty-three Dallas starters staying in sweats, which hands this game to Joe Milton and Sam Howell for what the staff itself calls the main event. Howell started a full NFL season, and that's a real edge in a game most opponents will be manning with pure camp arms. Seattle does get a brief look at its actual starter, with Sam Darnold projected for a series or two early, but Mike Macdonald has signaled a different approach this year, working Drew Lock through a series or two of his own before handing the rest of the game to rookie Jalen Milroe for four to six series in the second half. That's a talented, unrefined developmental arm carrying the bulk of Seattle's offense against a Dallas quarterback room that's already played real NFL snaps. The early Darnold look is the one thing working against this pick, and it's worth exactly a series or two before the roster-bubble players take over for the rest of the night. With Milton, Howell, and Milroe combining to handle most of the offensive snaps on both sides, expect the kind of pressing, mistake-prone football that inflates a preseason total. Dallas carries real value at this price, and the OVER backs it up. Take both Saturday night.

Seattle has a QB battle going to replace star Russell Wilson. It doesn't really matter as both Geno Smith and Drew Lock aren't very good. Smith will start this one, though Pete Carroll said "Lock will play most of the game." Lock sat out last week with COVID-19. Lock has 25 TDs and 20 picks in his NFL career, and over the last two years, it's even worse with 18 TDs and 17 INTs. Just as big a concern is Seattle's defense, which has been lousy in losing two preseason games surrendering 32 and 27 points. The Seahawks have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL the last two years and ranked 27th in yards allowed in 2021. The secondary has been the second-worst versus the pass for two straight seasons. Dallas plays its only home preseason game here and comes off of a 32-18 win at the Chargers. QB Will Grier played well last week with 98 yards while the Cowboys' ground attack has run for 141 and 115 yards in two games. Play Dallas.

Dallas has won seven of its last eight games, including a gritty performance last week while playing without Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys came from behind to win 36-35 in an otherwise meaningless game. It showed the potential of the offense when Dak Prescott is on his game and not throwing interceptions while the defense held New York to 298 total yards of offense. Prescott threw for 387 yards on 27-of-44 with four touchdowns and no picks. The defense is seventh in the league in yards allowed while allowing 20.2 points per game and the rush defense is fifth.  Seattle is #16 in yards allowed and gives up 21.7 points per game. The Seahawks got the fifth seed in the NFC when Sebastian Janikowski nailed a 33-yard field goal on the final play to give his team a win in a game where the Seahawks were a 14-point favorite against one of the worst teams in the league. Seattle did get a big win over Kansas City the week before, but otherwise has feasted on some of the weaker teams in the NFL. The Seahawks are 6-2 at home and only 4-4 on the road while the Cowboys are 7-1 at home and in revenge after losing to the Seahawks 24-13 in September when Dallas was a different team than it is now. Seattle is 1-5 ATS its last six playoff games and the Cowboys have covered six of their last eight games overall and and six of their last seven versus NFC teams. Dallas is 17-8 UNDER its last 25 games and 5-2 UNDER its last seven playoff games. Also, the UNDER is 11-3 in the Cowboys' last 14 games when following a win. Look for Dallas to carry over the momentum from last week's come-from-behind win, so play the Cowboys and the UNDER.