Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Dallas has had an extra three days to prepare for this matchup after defeating the New York Giants 20-15 last Thursday night. Dak Prescott was 22 of 27 for 221 yards and two TDs with no interceptions and CeeDee Lamb caught seven passes for 98 yards and a score. Pittsburgh couldn't recover from a 17-0 deficit and lost 27-24 to Indianapolis. The Cowboys defense seemed to turn it around in the second half against Baltimore in Week 3 and it stopped the Giants twice in the red zone. Justin Fields threw for 312 yards and a TD and had two second-half TD runs for the Steelers, who lost to the Colts despite a 404-358 edge in total yards. Dallas is 10-3 ATS its past 13 games against the AFC North and 11-2 ATS its past 13 October games. The Cowboys have gone UNDER 10 of 15 road games and the Steelers have stayed UNDER seven of eight October games and four of their past six games overall. Take the Cowboys and the UNDER.

Pittsburgh is 23-5 UNDER its last 28 games as a road favorite and this matchup has all the makings of another UNDER as the Cowboys will start their fourth different quarterback of the season in either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush. Against the vaunted Steeler defense, that's not a good sign. Pittsburgh is #5 in the NFL in yards allowed while giving up only 20.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Dallas has scored a total of only 22 points its last three games and comes off a 23-9 loss at Philadelphia that was ugly for both teams. The Cowboys fared even worse the week before, losing to lowly Washington 25-3. Dallas' last three games have gone UNDER by an average of 11.6 points. This is a letdown game for the undefeated Steelers as they scored a huge win over division rival Baltimore 28-24 last week. The Steelers managed to win the game with only 221 net yards and the defense forced four turnovers by Lamar Jackson. The UNDER is 39-13-1 in the Steelers' last 53 road games overall and they are 37-16 UNDER versus teams with losing records. The Cowboys have gone UNDER 19 of their last 28 games as underdogs. Play the UNDER.

The Steelers own the best defense in the league - as rated by yards allowed (262.4). But, they drop all the way to 7th when we look at points allowed (20.3). And, Dallas' defense is ranked in the lower third of the league, allowing 24.2 per game. Pittsburgh's defense is very stout at home, allowing just 16 points per game. That figure climbs by more than a touchdown on the road (24 ppg allowed). Dallas' defense at home gives up 27.3 per game and lately this unit has been getting torched, giving up 33+ points in two of their last three games. The Steelers are coming off an upset loss to the Chargers and winning road teams that are off an upset loss have seen their games go OVER the spread 68% of the time the past six seasons (56-26 OVER). Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 OVER when facing a winning team at home. They are also 10-1 OVER during that span at home vs. good passing teams (teams completing over 60% of their passes). In the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 21-11 OVER as a road favorite. Take the OVER here.