Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Point Spread Picks

Aaron Glenn is off to a nightmare start to his head coaching career, but his Jets have an opportunity to get his first win as they face Dallas, which hasn't been able to stop anybody either. In addition, the Cowboys come off a draining 40-40 overtime tie against Green Bay on Sunday night. Dallas has allowed 33.0 points per game compared to 30.0 for New York. Glenn's reputation as a defensive mastermind has taken a hit, but at least his offense has a chance to make some noise. Justin Fields had a decent performance against the Dolphins on Monday night, finishing 20-for-27 for 226 yards and a TD with no picks, and Breece Hall ran for 81 yards on 14 carries. The OVER is 7-0 in the Jets' past seven games after totaling more than 350 yards in their previous game. They have gone OVER five of six dating to last season and five of six on Sunday following a Monday night game. Dallas is 1-6-1 ATS after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, and it has lost five of seven road games outright. The Cowboys are 5-1 OVER after allowing at least 250 yards passing. The Cowboys are just a slight favorite, so take the Jets on the moneyline and the OVER.

The NFL buzz has been on the injury to QB Aaron Rodgers. But New York has an experienced backup in Zach Wilson (22 starts). He was 14-of-21 passing in the opener while the ground game had 172 yards (6.1 ypc) in a 22-16 upset of the Bills. And the Jets defense held Buffalo to 314 total yards and 5-of-13 on third down. That Buffalo offense was second in the NFL in 2022 in total yards (397.6 per game) and points (28.4 pg). The New York defense was fourth in the league in total yards and points (18.6 per game) allowed last year, plus Top 10 in third-down defense (38.11%). Dallas certainly looked like world-beaters in the opener, a 40-0 win, but there's been an overreaction with the line movement for this game. A year ago, the Cowboys' biggest victory of the season was a 40-3 blowout at Minnesota. The next week they were a double-digit favorite at home but failed to cover in a close one against the Giants. They also had a 54-19 rout of the Colts, only to squeak by Houston the next week, 27-23, as 17-point chalk. Dallas is 13-26 ATS after scoring 24+ points in the first half, plus 5-18 ATS after a win by 28 or more points. Play the New York Jets. 

The NY Jets will finally get Sam Darnold back at QB. While Darnold still has a way to go, he is certainly a major upgrade to what the Jets have been wheeling out there in his absence. The default here is 0-4 teams are often a long way from the bettor's minds except to play against them, and the oddsmakers often sense that and overload the favorite. The result is 0-4 teams cover 55.2% of the time on the blind. Dallas looked like the team to beat until they dropped two straight games to fall to 3-2 on the season. Dak Prescott threw just nine INTs all of last season but has six through just five games this season and has been making bad decisions when under pressure. The Jets are an ugly choice here but history has left behind many football games that say ugly is good in the NFL if you are a bettor. Grab the points on New York.

The Jets obviously have a great defense, but the offense remains a big question mark. The few times they tried to open things up last season under young QB Mark Sanchez (17 TDs, 13 INTs), the turnovers were high. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer instead goes with a conservative, methodical approach to limit turnovers and get great field position because of their dominant defense. Dallas has the offense to put up points so the Jets may be forced outside of their comfort zone. The Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points. Dallas comes in with a lot of talent, like last season, but a new attitude because of their coaches. Dallas has Jason Garrett in his first full season as head coach. He has brought in a more serious, focused approach than fired Wade Phillips, which was evident in preseason. This offense has talent and balance with QB Tony Romo, who has plenty to prove after missing most of last season with an injury. The defense adds DC Rob Ryan from the Browns, Rex’s brother. He brings an aggressive, attacking approach to the defense and has a super LB corps to work with, led by Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware. Rob's presence should certainly help the Cowboys in gameplanning for this one. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and have more than enough talent and motivation to keep this close. Play the Cowboys.