Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

Both teams need wins to stay in the playoff race, realistically, and both come off thrilling last-second wins. Patrick Mahomes threw for a season-high 352 yards while rallying Kansas City from an 11-point deficit to defeat Indianapolis 23-20. The defense held the league's No.1 offense to 255 yards while the Chiefs totaled 494 yards. Dallas overcame a 21-point deficit to beat Philadelphia 24-21 on Brandon Aubrey's 42-yard field goal as time expired. The Chiefs have a significant edge on defense, ranking #4 in the NFL, allowing 18.3 points per game, compared to #31 Dallas, which yields 28.6. Kansas City has won nine of 11 against NFC teams. The Cowboys are #29 in total yards allowed (377.5). Mahomes can take advantage of Dallas's zone coverage, which it uses most of the time, as he has for years. The Cowboys' defense has improved since the beginning of the season, but not enough to get a win in this matchup. Take the Chiefs on the moneyline.

The much-maligned defense of the Dallas Cowboys is a lot better than most think. Dallas is ranked #1 in the league in stopping #1 receivers. They are also ranked #1 in stopping short passes. Pat Mahomes is not having a typical season and has already thrown as many picks this year (10), as he did all of last year. His yards per attempt are also way down. Many look at last week vs. Vegas and say, ok Mahomes is back, but one game against a poor pass defense doesn't offer that. The Dallas offense will have a huge advantage going against a Kansas City defense that has been lit up by competent quarterbacks all season. Dallas is putting up 33 points per game against better defenses and is doing so with a modest amount of turnovers. Make the play on Dallas.

Kansas City has balance and speed on offense, third in the NFL in yards per game, with 122.8 yards rushing, 255 passing. QB Alex Smith (16 TDs, 0 INTs) has taken advantage of speedy weapons Tyreek Hill and rookie RB Kareem Hunt (763 yards, 5.2 ypc). Throw in TE Travis Kelce (556 yards), the leading receiver, and they are tough for anyone to defend. Six of their last seven road games have sailed OVER the total, including their last road contest, a 31-30 defeat at Oakland. Dallas has a strong quarterback, too, in Dak Prescott (14 TDs, 4 INTs) with fine targets in WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten and WR Terrance Williams. They also have great balance with star RB Ezekiel Elliott avoiding suspension. Dallas has scored 33, 40, 31, 30 and 28 points the last five games, moving up to fifth in the NFL in scoring (28.3 ppg), but the defense has slipped from a year ago, #20 in points allowed. And playing OVER a total greater than or equal to 49.5 in a game involving two teams that average less than 1.25 turnovers per game has gone 40-12 OVER the total. Play Kansas City and the OVER.