Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Jacksonville and new coach Urban Meyer are off to a bad start as No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence has been above-average at best and rookie running back Travis Etienne is out for the season with a foot injury. The Jaguars lost their first two preseason games, but did get a back-door cover against New Orleans on Monday night. Dallas doesn't have a good history in preseason action, but the Cowboys have been competitive their last two games losing to Arizona on a last-second field goal before a 20-14 defeat against Houston when the Dallas defense held the Texans to 77 yards of offense in the first half when Houston went 0-for-9 on third down tries. The Cowboys are the only 0-3 team because they also played in the Hall of Fame game and that gives them motivation to go into the regular season with at least one win. The Jaguars and Meyer still are concentrating on evaluating players. Dallas has gone UNDER 10 preseason games in a row and Jacksonville is 6-3 UNDER its past nine preseason games. Take the Cowboys and the UNDER.

The Jacksonville offense scored 14 points last week to offer some hidden value in this game. The Jaguars may have lacked scoring because they turned the ball over five times, but even with five possessions ending prematurely because of turnovers, they went for over 500 yards against the Chiefs. The prior week they managed 31 vs. the Jets despite three turnovers, and the offense went for over 500 yards in that one as well. Dallas has done well defensively, but four of their five games were against a team that ranks 18th or worse in the NFL in total yards per game. Against the only top 10 teams they have seen, Houston put up 464 yards against them. Jacksonville now 53-33 to the OVER off at least one UNDER. There is hidden value here, so take the OVER.

There are some issues with Tony Romo's back as he has a pair of small fractures. But, he did practice Thursday, is listed as probable, and all indications are that he will get the start. I don't think it will much matter as Jacksonville is horrible and Dallas is surely going to give a heavy load to DeMarco Murray, who is on a record-breaking pace with 1,133 yards through nine games. Jacksonville has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 339 yards on 59 carries at 5.6 yards per rush. The Jags have simply have had no offense for several years and this season is no different. The modern day NFL is based on scoring, but this is a team that has scored more than 17 points in just seven of its last 26 games. That will make things difficult for Jacksonville as Dallas owns a 131-45-3 ATS mark when they hold an opponent to 17 points or fewer. Couple that with a closer in the backfield, and the Cowboys certainly look like a strong valued choice for their game in England. Jacksonville overall is just 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games, and the Romo issue is holding the line down, but the Dallas offense shouldn't need much from the passing game. Lay the points on Big D.

The talent level says 5-1, but the record says 1-5. Such is the fate of the Dallas Cowboys. The wise coach Bill Parcels once said, "You are what the record says you are" and right now Dallas is just not a good team. We went against them Monday night and despite getting three Giants turnovers and a punt return TD to start the game, the Cowboys still got destroyed. I've questioned Dallas' play calling and coaching all season, but now things get worse without Tony Romo leading the offense. Jon Kitna has to step in and make things happen for Dallas and his last two seasons as a starter saw him top the 20 INT mark both years. The Dallas run game is ranked 30th in the league, producing just 86 yards per game. Fortunately, he will be facing a Jacksonville defense that hasn't done much of anything, so Dallas will score here, but so will the Jaguars. David Garrard is back at the helm in this one and the Dallas defense is allowing over 25 points per game, ranked #27 in the league. The Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Here we have a very bad team with their backup quarterback making his first start, playing nearly a touchdown. I like the Jags to cover. I also like the OVER in this game. As a home favorite of 3.5-10, Dallas has played each of the last four OVER. Meanwhile, the Jags in the role as a dog from 3.5-10, have played 6-1 to the OVER. In October games, Wade Phillips coached teams are 25-9 OVER and also 13-4 OVER in games when he's facing a defense that allows 5.7+ yards per play. I like Jacksonville and the OVER here.