Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Picks

It doesn't matter if Indianapolis goes with QB Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger. This offense isn't very good, 25th in total yards and yards per rush (4.1), 28th on third down (36%), and the third-worst in scoring (15.8 ppg). They come off of a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh after getting zero total yards in the first quarter. The Colts are 40-19 UNDER the total against teams that run for 130+ yards per game in the second half of the season. In addition, NFL teams like the Colts that are outscored by 4+ points per game are 51-20 UNDER after scoring 17 points or less in two straight with a total between 42.5 and 49 points. The Dallas offense is Top 10 in rushing, while the defense is seventh in yards allowed, fifth on third down (34%), and second in points surrendered (17 per game). And for the season, they're allowing 16.8 points per game at home. Take Indianapolis/Dallas UNDER the total.

Dallas escaped with an overtime win over the Eagles last week, scoring 29 points while Indianapolis pulled off an upset over Houston 24-21. Andrew Luck threw for 399 yards and two touchdowns and T.Y. Hilton had 199 receiving yards to help snap Houston's nine-game winning streak. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott is day-to-day with a neck injury and it's a tough scheduling spot for the Cowboys going on the road following an emotional OT win over a divisional rival. This is about the time that Dallas starts underperforming. They are 40-61 ATS in their last 101 games from week 14-17. Under Jason Garrett, the Boys are just 39-53 ATS in games played on turf. The Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. opponents with winning road records. Play the Colts.

Dallas won a big game last week on the road at Philadelphia to take over the division lead, but it came with a huge price. DeMarco Murray suffered a broken hand and will need surgery. The Cowboys are trying to find a way to have him in the game, but how effective he can be remains to be seen, if he can even play. Murray has rushed for 1,687 yards on the season and he is one reason why Tony Romo has been effective as Dallas has finally established a running game, but that may not be the case Sunday vs. the 10-4 Colts. This has been a historically bad time of year for Dallas who is now 3-19-1 ATS from week 13 out as a non-division favorite, which includes 0-11 ATS off a win. Many forget Indianapolis is 10-2 in their last 12 games and even though they got the win last week 17-10, it was their lowest scoring offensive game of the season. That may sound like a bad thing, but since Andrew Luck has been around, the Colts offense does not stay down long as they are 13-0 ATS following a game where they scored less than 21 points since Luck took over. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Make the play on Indianapolis.

It is becoming apparent that Peyton Manning is getting frustrated. His receiving corp has been beset by injuries and the Colts running game has been grounded. The "master" has looked quite pedestrian this year having thrown seven INT's in his last two games and the Colts offense has gone nine games without scoring more than 30 points. Let's put that into perspective. Going back to the 2003-04 season (covering 123 games), the Colts have not gone more than four games without topping the 30 mark. The significance here is they are still playing to high posted totals and this one is more reflective of the past than what is happening on the field now. This Indy offense in its prime went 50-20 to the UNDER in their last 50 games posted at 47.5 or higher. Now they are not nearly as good, so the value is clearly on the UNDER here. After giving up 36 points last game, you can bet the Colts defense will be out to prove something here. The same goes for Dallas' defense that allowed 30 last week. The COlts are 12-3 UNDER the past three seasons following a game in which 50+ points were scored. I think this one is going the same way - UNDER.