Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Point Spread Picks

Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 last Sunday. Dallas lost 24-16 to Tampa Bay on Thursday, October 8. Neither club has scored more than 19 points in a first half this season: Green Bay has scored 19, 7, 7, 10 and 14, and Dallas has scored 7, 17, 13, 6 and 10. Dallas games have totaled 48, 57, 65, 64, and 40 points, with 21, 27, 30, 22, and 17 of them coming before halftime, and Green Bay games have totaled 61, 37, 49, 31, and 38, with 29, 14, 24, 17, and 21 before halftime. Green Bay has allowed 9.6 points per first half and Dallas 12.8. Green Bay has played without defensive end Micah Parsons, on the physically unable to perform list with a torn ACL, and running back Josh Jacobs, on the commissioner’s exempt list. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave are out for the season with torn Achilles tendons, and wide receiver Jayden Reed is out for the season with a neck injury. The first-half UNDER is the bet in Green Bay on Sunday night.

Green Bay is 3-0 UNDER the total with one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranked third in yards allowed, third against the run, sixth on third down (31.82%), and No. 1 in points given up (14.7 per game). The Packers come off their first loss because the offense couldn't get going, losing 13-10 at Cleveland. They ran for 81 yards (2.6 ypc). Injuries are piling up on the offensive line, with guard Aaron Banks (groin) injured in the first half and tackle Zach Tom dealing with an oblique strain. The Packers are on an 11-5-1 run UNDER the total. The Dallas offense had a big game against the second-worst defense in the league (the Giants), but struggled to score 34 total points in losses to the Eagles and Bears. Take Green Bay/Dallas UNDER the total.

This is an NFC showdown between a pair of 3-1 teams. Green Bay has been much improved under the new coaching staff. The defense is #10 in yards allowed, seventh in points surrendered (17.3 per game), while QB Aaron Rodgers (six TDs, one INT) has only been sacked eight times in four games. They were a dog against Chicago and won straight-up and the offense has scored 27 points in each of the last two games. Green Bay is on an 18-7 run OVER the total on the road, plus 17-8 OVER after a spread loss. The Packers are also 59-38 ATS against teams that commit 60+ penalty yards per game. They face a Dallas squad that has had a soft schedule...until last week, losing 12-10 to the Saints and their backup quarterback. Dallas is 3-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record, as well as a 7-3 run OVER the total home. Green Bay has covered six of the last eight meetings and the OVER has cashed five straight when they meet in Dallas. Back the visitors with the big edge at QB in a high scoring indoor tilt. Play Green Bay and the OVER.

Green Bay is a underdog, but an elite team with the best quarterback in the game that's off to a strong start. QB Aaron Rodgers has 10 TDs, three picks and the defense has been much improved at sixth in the NFL in yards allowed, and fifth in pass defense. Green Bay is on a 11-2 straight-up run, winning three of their last four times as a dog, as well as 34-16-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. They face a Dallas squad that lost key contributors from last year, ranked #20 at defending the pass, and #26 in points allowed (24.3 points per game). They've been outscored on the season and are dealing with injuries: Charles Tapper will miss 10-to-12 weeks, while LB Sean Lee (hamstring) and Stephen Paea (knee) have been limited in practice this week. RB Ezekiel Elliott, the focal point of the offense, hasn't been on his game, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. The Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS on fieldturf and have lost two games this season as favorites, losing 42-17 at Denver as -2.5 chalk and last week to the Rams, 35-30, as -5.5 chalk. Dallas is on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 14-5 UNDER after a spread loss. They are also 35-20 UNDER after gaining six or more yards per play in back-to-back games. These teams met in January in the playoffs on this field and the Packers won 34-31 as a +5.5 dog as Rodgers was 28-of-32 for 326 yards. Play both Green Bay on the moneyline and the UNDER.