Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Point Spread Picks

Green Bay is 3-0 UNDER the total with one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranked third in yards allowed, third against the run, sixth on third down (31.82%), and No. 1 in points given up (14.7 per game). The Packers come off their first loss because the offense couldn't get going, losing 13-10 at Cleveland. They ran for 81 yards (2.6 ypc). Injuries are piling up on the offensive line, with guard Aaron Banks (groin) injured in the first half and tackle Zach Tom dealing with an oblique strain. The Packers are on an 11-5-1 run UNDER the total. The Dallas offense had a big game against the second-worst defense in the league (the Giants), but struggled to score 34 total points in losses to the Eagles and Bears. Take Green Bay/Dallas UNDER the total.

This is an NFC showdown between a pair of 3-1 teams. Green Bay has been much improved under the new coaching staff. The defense is #10 in yards allowed, seventh in points surrendered (17.3 per game), while QB Aaron Rodgers (six TDs, one INT) has only been sacked eight times in four games. They were a dog against Chicago and won straight-up and the offense has scored 27 points in each of the last two games. Green Bay is on an 18-7 run OVER the total on the road, plus 17-8 OVER after a spread loss. The Packers are also 59-38 ATS against teams that commit 60+ penalty yards per game. They face a Dallas squad that has had a soft schedule...until last week, losing 12-10 to the Saints and their backup quarterback. Dallas is 3-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record, as well as a 7-3 run OVER the total home. Green Bay has covered six of the last eight meetings and the OVER has cashed five straight when they meet in Dallas. Back the visitors with the big edge at QB in a high scoring indoor tilt. Play Green Bay and the OVER.

Green Bay is a underdog, but an elite team with the best quarterback in the game that's off to a strong start. QB Aaron Rodgers has 10 TDs, three picks and the defense has been much improved at sixth in the NFL in yards allowed, and fifth in pass defense. Green Bay is on a 11-2 straight-up run, winning three of their last four times as a dog, as well as 34-16-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. They face a Dallas squad that lost key contributors from last year, ranked #20 at defending the pass, and #26 in points allowed (24.3 points per game). They've been outscored on the season and are dealing with injuries: Charles Tapper will miss 10-to-12 weeks, while LB Sean Lee (hamstring) and Stephen Paea (knee) have been limited in practice this week. RB Ezekiel Elliott, the focal point of the offense, hasn't been on his game, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. The Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS on fieldturf and have lost two games this season as favorites, losing 42-17 at Denver as -2.5 chalk and last week to the Rams, 35-30, as -5.5 chalk. Dallas is on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 14-5 UNDER after a spread loss. They are also 35-20 UNDER after gaining six or more yards per play in back-to-back games. These teams met in January in the playoffs on this field and the Packers won 34-31 as a +5.5 dog as Rodgers was 28-of-32 for 326 yards. Play both Green Bay on the moneyline and the UNDER.

Dallas crushed Green Bay at Lambeau 30-16 back in October. It would be easy to take away from that the better team is by far Dallas. But, over the last seven games, it is Green Bay that statistically is the best team in the NFL. They have beaten more teams in the playoffs than any other team (7-2). The Packers are 0.75 yards per play better than their opponents in the seven games. They accomplished the hat trick during those seven games, scoring 38 points in all three vs. arguably the top three defenses in the NFL in Minnesota, Seattle, and the NY Giants. The win last week was very impressive against a very good Giants defense. The G-Men could not muster a pass rush and AaronRodgers torched them. Rodgers has thrown 22 TDs to zero INTs, and has been the best QB in the league for years, and is playing at an all-time high level right now. The assumption is that Dak Prescott will be Dak Prescott, and most likely he will be. However, this is his first playoff game, so until he gets settled into the game it will be a wait and see approach, with a small chance he implodes. I'm sure Green Bay is going to try and put a lot of heat on him early to test him. The Dallas offense has not been cranking out the points late in the season as they did early. Their last five games have seen them tally 17 or fewer three times. The Packers have been controlling clock in their seven game winning streak, and will do their best to keep Dallas off the field. In this round of the playoffs, teams that allowed fewer than 20 points in their previous game, playing to a line of less than nine points vs. an opponent that scored fewer than 35 points in their previous game are 23-5 ATS, and a perfect 21-0 ATS if the total is under than 43, or the total is greater than 45.5. That 21-0 ATS situation shows the worst loss a team has suffered was by seven points, and just three by more than five points! I think both of these teams have respect for the other's offense, so ball control and field position will be paramount. As a result, I think this game is going to be played below expectations from a total standpoint. This Green Bay team can really take advantage of momentum. Mike McCarthy's Packers are 68-47 ATS following a win including 31-17 ATS after back-to-back-t-back wins. The way they are playing right now, these teams are pretty even, so getting more than a field goal is the way to go. Play Green Bay and the UNDER.