Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans Point Spread Picks

Tennessee has covered three of the last four, while the defense has allowed 22 points or less in three of its five road contests. Last-place Cleveland is in the rare role of favorite. It's a role they flopped in the last time they were favored, losing straight-up to the Jets 27-20 four weeks ago. Cleveland's run defense has been inconsistent, while the offense ranks 31st in total yards, 29th in scoring, and 30th on third down behind QB Shedeur Sanders (2 TDs, 2 INTs). The Browns are on a 4-7 ATS run, part of an 8-19 ATS run stretching back to last season. Play Tennessee. 

Cleveland's got some impressive overall stats, including No. 1 in the NFL in rushing. However, they're 1-1. They've been underachieving (and overvalued) for a while with suspect coaching being a big part of that. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 9-18 ATS as a favorite. Tennessee has one of the best coaching staffs in the league on an 11-5-1 spread run, including 13-4 ATS in the first half of the season. This is an excellent matchup for the Tennesee defense that is fourth against the run and second in yards per rush allowed (2.7 per carry). They were No. 1 in the NFL last year in yards per rush allowed (3.4). The Titans were an underdog last week but beat the Chargers, 27-24, in OT, holding Los Angeles to 2-of-14 on third down. Tennessee has an NFL-best mark in games decided by three or fewer points since 2018 under Coach Mike Vrabel. Cleveland is on a 7-9 spread run and is 2-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road. They come off a loss at Pittsburgh as a favorite, 26-22, turning it over 4 times. The Browns are 11-25 ATS after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards. And NFL home favorites like Cleveland after a loss are 34-83 ATS in the first half of the season. Play Tennessee as a Max Play. 

Tennessee has a losing road record with a defense ranked second to last in the NFL in points allowed (27.3 ppg). Only the Colts are worse. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota sat out a 16-10 loss at Miami on October 8 with a hamstring injury and returned on Monday but had limited mobility in a 36-22 victory over Indianapolis. Running back DeMarco Murray is also dealing with a hamstring issue, missing practice this week and is questionable. The Titans are on a 17-39-3 ATS run, including 12-35-4 ATS against the AFC and 16-33-3 ATS on natural grass. Tennessee is also 5-23-3 ATS against losing teams.
Tennessee likes to run the football but this Cleveland defense has been great up front allowing 83.3 yards rushing per game, sixth in the league. No. 1 overall pick DE Myles Garrett has been a force despite not making his debut until Week 5, totaling three sacks in his first two games and helped force an interception last week against Houston. These teams met last year with Tennessee a -7.5 home favorite, but they barely won, 28-26. RB DeMarco Murray had just 65 yards, 3.1 yards per carry, and the Browns made it close despite going just 3-of-14 on third down. They are improved and will keep it close again, this time at home. Play Cleveland.