Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

The Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers are a pair of teams on the rise. This will be a good test for each team. I'm not as impressed with Baker Mayfield as most are. He is wildly inconsistent and overall his numbers would rank him 28th in the league as a QB. San Francisco, behind the play-action strong offense of Coach Shannahan and QB Jimmy Garappolo, has been strong. Garappolo has the second most play-action pass attempts in the league where he completes 85.7% of his passes at 15.4 yards per attempt. The Niners use play-action on 36% of all dropbacks at 9.9 yards per pass. There are many favorables in this game for the Niners: A Monday Night favorite off a win and 14 days rest is 12-0-1 ATS. Also, Monday Night home teams greater than .800 vs. a team .500 or better with a line from -2.5 to -9 and a total greater than 37 are 33-5-3 ATS. I think there is a strong probability the Niners win this one. Make the play on San Francisco on the moneyline.

The San Francisco 49ers are 4-8 and heading nowhere, and the Cleveland Browns have not won a football game since October 11th. I'm not sure these teams have much left. The Niners are starting over at QB with Blaine Gabbert, but have scored 17,13,13, and 26 points in four games. The Browns have problems at QB regardless of who starts and who finishes, as they have scored 10 points or fewer in four of their last six games, rushing for a total of 336 yards in those six games. San Francisco is averaging all of 13 points per game in their last six, and I just don't see a way this one gets up into the 40s. The Browns should not be favored over anyone right now. They are 1-7 straight-up in the second half of the season the past three years. And dating back to last year, the Browns are just 3-9 straight-up vs. bad defensive teams like SF (teams allowing 5.7+ yards per play). Take the Niners and make a play on the UNDER.

I'm not sure if I have seen a game as ugly as last week's game between Seattle and Cleveland. Neither team could find the end zone for 60 minutes. The Browns squandered opportunity after opportunity to put the game away and two field goals blocked including the game-tying one. After performing so poorly against another very ugly team, no one wants a piece of Cleveland this week. San Francisco meanwhile, has opened the season in surprising fashion with a 5-1 mark - second best in the entire NFC right on the Packers. This one should be easy for the Niners, right? Nothing is easy in the NFL. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS and the only unbeaten team ATS remaining. This one looks too easy, and that typically means that it will be a struggle for the San Francisco. They are coming off a big emotional win in Detroit and prior to that they won by 45 points. How can they be excited and brined their A game here against the Browns? Bye weeks have not been kind to teams this season. With the rule change requiring players to have extra time off during the bye, we have seen post-bye teams go 4-7 ATS this season already. And, San Francisco is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven off a bye. The Browns seem to save their best for road games as an underdog, where they are now 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a dog from +3.5 to +10. The Niners managed less than 150 yards passing in their previous game, and have come back off of a poor passing game by going 4-11-2 ATS. Play on ugly Cleveland and take the points.