Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27 last week behind 292 passing yards and three touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers, and it did that at home, where the Steelers are 2-0. Their one road game ended 20-3 at New England, with Rodgers sacked four times and the offense stuck at 2-for-12 on third downs. I had Cleveland as a road underdog at Tampa Bay in Week 2, and the Browns won it outright, 23-19. Cleveland's offense is the standing worry: 54 points in three games, and Deshaun Watson threw for 144 yards against Carolina. Both Jenkins linemen, center Elgton and guard Teven, are out for this one. Pittsburgh has scored 53 in those same three games, and the secondary that Watson faces is down Joey Porter Jr., with Jalen Ramsey and Brandin Echols both questionable. The Browns have held their last two opponents to 19 and 18. The records are identical at 2-1, and the Steelers are the ones giving points on the road. I'm on Cleveland with the points at home tonight. 

Cleveland led most of the game, but lost in the closing seconds to the Vikings when Jordan Addison caught a go-ahead 12-yard TD pass from Carson Wentz for a 21-17 Minnesota victory in London on Sunday. Dillon Gabriel threw for two TDs in his first NFL start, and Quinshon Judkins ran for 110 yards, giving the Browns some optimism for their offense in the future after averaging only 14.0 points in their first four games. The Browns have beaten Pittsburgh outright in two of the past three meetings. The Steelers come off a bye week after defeating the Vikings 24-21. Pittsburgh still is 3-6 straight up and ATS dating to last season. The Browns are No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed (247.8) and tied at No. 4 in pass defense. Cleveland leads the league in rushing defense, yielding just 75.6 yards per game. The Steelers are #28 in total yards allowed (382.5 per game). Cleveland's defense is more than capable of keeping the Steelers offense, led by Aaron Rodgers, off-balance by forcing him to beat the Browns through the air. Pittsburgh ranks #31 in rushing offense, averaging only 80.0 yards per game. Take the Browns.

This is a big revenge game for Pittsburgh, which lost the first meeting in a blizzard in Cleveland on Nov. 21, and the game still went over by six points, with the Browns winning 24-19. Four of the past five meetings have gone OVER, and the Steelers have been 6-1 OVER in their past seven games. The Browns are playing on a short week after losing a tough battle at Denver 41-32, and it soared OVER by 31.5 points. Pittsburgh has won and covered six of seven after defeating Cincinnati 44-38, and that one sailed OVER by 36 points. Rejuvenated Russell Wilson was 29 of 38 for 414 yards, and the Steelers totaled 520 yards of offense. The Steelers are 10-1-1 ATS after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 250 passing yards. Jameis Winston threw four TD passes but also was picked off three times against the Broncos. Take the Steelers and the OVER.

Pittsburgh's defense has allowed an average of 17.8 points during its five-game winning streak. Tyrel Austin's unit ranks eighth in the NFL in yards allowed, fourth against the run, ninth on third down (34.96%), and second in points given up (16.2 per game). They've won eight of 10 along with four of their five road contests. Last-place Cleveland has lost four of its five home games. The defense is 17th in yards allowed and 22nd in points surrendered (24.8 per game), while the offense is 25th in yards and last on third down (28.17%). In the last two games, they lost 35-14 at New Orleans as a favorite, and 27-10 to the Chargers in their last home game. The wagering value is on the visitors to grab another win. Play Pittsburgh on the moneyline.