Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets Point Spread Picks

In last place, the Browns have lost all four of their road games, averaging 12.25 points. Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel has been sacked 11 times over the previous four games. The offense is 31st in total yards, 30th in points scored (15.8 per game), and 30th on third down (33.04%). Cleveland is averaging just 4.4 yards per play, the worst in the league. New York returns from a bye week with every player fighting for a job after trading two of its best players. The Jets come off a 39-38 win at Cincinnati as a +5.5 underdog. In the previous two games, they held Carolina to 13 points in a loss and nearly upset Denver, losing 13-11 as a +7 underdog. The defense is ninth in the NFL on third down, with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play New York on the moneyline. 

These teams met in 2022 and the game went OVER by 22.5 points as New York won 31-30. Cleveland sailed OVER by 18 points last week against Houston, winning 36-22, and the Browns have gone OVER four of their past five games. Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards and three TDs and Amari Cooper had a single-game franchise record 265 receiving yards and scored two TDs and a 2-point conversion for the Browns. The Jets went OVER by 22 points on Sunday when they defeated Washington 30-28 and Trevor Siemian threw for 217 yards and a touchdown. Cleveland has gone OVER five of six against AFC opponents and the Browns are 6-0-1 OVER after gaining more than 350 yards their previous game. This is a low posted total and the weather forecast looks decent with a slight chance of light rain. Take the OVER.

Cleveland blew a 13-point lead and then beat Carolina on a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds left and Jacoby Brissett threw for 147 yards for the Browns, who depended more on their running game as Nick Chubb ran for 141 yards and Kareem Hunt scored two touchdowns. Now the Browns go home to face the Jets, who actually outgained Baltimore 378-274 on Sunday and Joe Flacco went 37 of 59 for 307 yards. New York, however, had trouble getting into the end zone and lost 24-9 and the game went UNDER by 12 points. The last four meetings have stayed UNDER, including the Jets' 23-16 victory over the Browns in 2020 and New York is 5-0 UNDER its last five September games. Cleveland is 5-1 UNDER its last six home games and the Browns are 0-5 ATS their last five as favorites and 8-20 ATS their past 28 games games versus AFC teams. Flacco will start again this week in place of injured Zach Wilson after enduring four dropped passes on Sunday and New York's defense showed enough to keep this one close. Take the Jets and the UNDER.