Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

Todd Monken and Mike Vrabel struck a mutual agreement before this one: neither Deshaun Watson nor Drake Maye is playing, so this finale belongs entirely to the back of each roster. Cleveland goes with Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green, the pair Monken has been grooming behind Watson all summer and clearly trusts enough to hand the whole night to. New England is the shakier side of this one: Vrabel has said outright that this roster lacks depth, and whoever lines up behind center is auditioning for a real 53-man spot with cutdowns just days away. Two developmental quarterback rooms playing loose, low-continuity football against each other tends to mean broken coverages and free access to the end zone before it means a tight, controlled rehearsal. Every snap tonight is a resume, not a formality. Back the OVER.

The New England Patriots needed to show up in Detroit last week or fall to 1-4 and see their season go on life support. They delivered their best game of the year with a resounding 29-0 win. They are now 2-3 on the season, as they head to Cleveland to take on the Browns who are also 2-3. Cleveland has played 4 of their 5 games that have been decided by 3 points or fewer. The ugly side of that is that 3 of those 4 have been losses. They went a bit downhill last week as they were out-gained for the first time all season. These teams look even, but the Pats are part of a very strong situation. NFL teams that won by shutting out their last opponent and in doing so allowed fewer than 100 yards or more than 300 yards are 20-1 ATS in their next game providing they are playing to a line of -10 or fewer points, and are 5-0 ATS as a road dog in this situation and have won 4 of the 5 straight up. Make the play on New England.

There's still a lot we don't know about this Cleveland coaching staff. The team has a winning record, but with all the talent, they were expected to be very good after an 11-5 2020 season. They've been erratic, and despite the winning mark, they're actually tied with the Bengals for last place in the AFC North. What we do know is the passing offense has underachieved with QB Baker Mayfield throwing just 8 TDs and ranking #24 in passing yards (#15 on third down). The coaching staff bears some responsibility with the Browns drawing too many penalties, #25 in the NFL with 7.1 per game after ranking #21 last season. And here they go up against the best coaching staff in the league, ranked seventh in penalties (5.8 per game). The Patriots have been very good under rookie QB Mac Jones and keep getting better, winning three in a row. That includes a 27-24 win at the Chargers as a +4 dog. With an OT loss to Dallas, a missed last-second field goal in a 19-17 loss to the defending champs, and a late fumble that probably cost them a game against Miami, the Patriots aren't that far from being 8-2. The Patriots are #10 in points scored (25.6 per game), ninth defensively in yards allowed, and fourth in points surrendered (18.9 per game). The Browns are dealing with a slew of injuries with star RB Nick Chubb out, along with running backs Demetric Felton and John Kelly, leaving RB D'Ernest Johnson as the team's only healthy back. The wagering value is on the home team to win the game. Play New England on the moneyline.

There seems to be deeper issues between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and while the Patriots' 7-0 start and relentless defense should be the talk, problems between the head coach and superstar QB seem to be taking the oxygen out of the room. New England has allowed three offensive TDs through seven games and has already picked off 18 passes. Baker Mayfield will throw against that defense as the NFL QB with the most picks on the season with 11. Remember this is the contrarian NFL so what looks logical usually isn't. Don't be surprised if Mayfield finds success in this game. The Pats have not faced a very difficult schedule all season as their opponent's combined record is 12-32. Mayfield is the most talented QB they will have seen to date and he has some stellar receivers to throw to. I that think this one is closer than it looks. Grab the points on Cleveland.