Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

A pair of snake bitten 1-5 teams. Miami has lost four of its last five games, although three of the losses were by margins of 5, 3, and 2 points. They're on a 3-1 ATS run. Unlike Cleveland, they actually have a good quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa (11 TDs, 7 INTs), along with skill position offensive talent like RB De'Von Achane (390 yards, 5.1 ypc). The Dolphins are on a 9-7 ATS run, which includes a 20-3 win at Cleveland late last season. Cleveland dumped Joe Flacco and has turned to rookie QB Dillon Gabriel. They've lost three in a row to Detroit (34-10), Minnesota (21-17), and Pittsburgh (23-9). The offense is 28th in total yards, 29th in rushing, 28th on third down (34.4%), and last in points (13.7 per game). The defense ranks 27th on third down (42.50%), with the bumbling Browns on a 5-17 ATS run. Play Miami. 

Miami still has playoff hopes, although the Dolphins are just 2-5 (3-4 ATS) on the road this season, and they are 6-12 ATS their past 18 games overall. They don't have a good history playing at Cleveland, losing six of their past seven outright, and the Browns have played well defensively their past two games against tough opponents, Kansas City and Cincinnati, but got little help from their offense. Cleveland is No. 13 in pass defense, and Miami mainly depended on its field goal kicker, Jason Sanders, to defeat San Francisco 29-17 on Sunday. Sanders kicked five field goals, and Tua Tagovailoa passed for 215 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins are not a cold-weather team, although the forecast calls for rain and temperatures in the high 40s. Cleveland has had a disappointing season but has shown no signs of tanking. Take the points with the Browns.

Cleveland has had an extra three days to prepare for this one and recover from the Myles Garrett debacle. Despite all the turmoil, the Browns have won two in a row and Baker Mayfield has been humbled and is beginning to look more like an adequate quarterback - at least for time being. Mayfield went 17-of-32 for 193 yards with two touchdown passes and most notably no interceptions in his team's 21-7 win against Pittsburgh. The Cleveland defense picked off Mason Rudolph four times and the Browns now have allowed an average of only 18.5 points the last four games.  Miami is averaging only 13.9 points on the season and the Dolphins are #29 in the league in total offense yards. Miami also is #29 defensively giving up 394.3 yards per game and 30.5 points. Miami is 5-12 ATS over its last 17 road games and 8-24-1 ATS its last 33 games after allowing at least 30 points its previous game. The Dolphins lost by 17 to the Bills, which Cleveland defeated the week before. Lay the points with the Browns.

Cleveland heads out on the road struggling on offense, averaging just 15 points per game. WR Corey Coleman, the Browns' rookie wide receiver and first-round draft pick, fractured his hand in practice on Wednesday. They are down to their third-string QB in rookie Cody Kessler, so look for a heavy dose of runs and short passes to control the ball and the clock. RB Isaiah Crowell had 133 yards (7.4 yards per carry) against Baltimore last Sunday as the team ran for 145 yards (6.3 ypc) behind this very strong offensive line. In Week 1 they ran for 120 yards (5.7 ypc) against the Eagles. RB Crowell quietly has 195 yards for a stellar 6.5 yards per carry. That will work against a Miami defense that has a lot of holes. The secondary is terrible and the linebackers are bad in pass coverage. Cleveland's defense is decent up front, stuffing the Ravens last week where they allowed 80 yards rushing, just 3.1 ypc, and they held Philadelphia to 3.9 ypc. Cleveland is also 31-15-1 UNDER the total against a team with a losing record. Miami is home from a brutal two-game trip, playing the physical Seahawks and Patriots. They are a worn out group already from the long trips and punishing contests. Miami's offense has been awful in six of eight quarters, only racking up a ton of yards and points in the second half last week after trailing 31-3. They are #25 in the NFL in total yards, #27 in points. The Dolphins are on a 2-9 ATS run at home, plus 13-41-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. With the Browns 18-7-1 ATS away vs. a team with a losing home record, grab the big dog in a defensive duel. Play Cleveland and the UNDER.