Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders Point Spread Picks

The Cleveland Browns' offense has been brutally bad this season. They have a game this week in Las Vegas against the Raiders, who are equally offensively challenged. Both these teams are averaging 16 PPG. The Cleveland defense is allowing just 277 yards per game, and the Raiders are allowing 323 yards per contest. Both teams have good defenses, and neither can find the end zone enough to be competitive. This is a pair of weak offenses that will try to move the ball against good defenses, and I don't see the winner topping 17 points in this game. The Raiders are now 14-5 to the UNDER following a home game. Make the play UNDER the total.

The Raiders were shellacked 36-22 by the previously winless Carolina Panthers last week. And while it's not unusual for a team that was humiliated to bounce back the following week, there's no way this team's offensive line and run game can be that much better in such a short time. There could also be some dissension in the ranks with Vegas, as some players appeared to quit late in the game. The Raiders came into that contest off a miracle victory at Baltimore, but there's not enough talent on the team's offense to overcome bad chemistry. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their past eight home games off a double-digit ATS loss and 0-7 ATS overall after allowing more than 35 points. Las Vegas has lost 12 of its past 16 Week 4 games outright. Cleveland comes off a 21-15 loss to the New York Giants. Deshaun Watson finished 21 of 37 for 196 yards with no interceptions, and I'll look for him to try and avoid costly mistakes, take care of the football, and control the tempo of this game. Cleveland's first road game was an 18-13 win at Jacksonville, and I expect a similar outcome here. Take the Browns, and play this game to stay UNDER the total. 

Both teams need a win to stay in the hunt for the AFC wild-card. Las Vegas QB Derek Carr (18 TDs, 10 INTs) leads an offense that is #10 in the NFL in total yards and second in passing with 287.8 yards per game. The Raiders got crushed at Kansas City last week, but they have covered five of seven as an underdog, including a 36-33 win at Dallas as a +7 dog, a 26-17 win at Pittsburgh, and a 34-24 win at Denver as a +5 dog. Las Vegas is also 35-20 UNDER the total on the road after allowing 30+ points in the last game. Cleveland has underachieved much of the season with an erratic offense that is #24 in passing and #22 on third down. The Browns were a 13-point favorite over the Lions but won 13-10 and a 5-point home favorite over the Steelers and lost 15-10. Cleveland's defense is the strength of the team, ranking fourth in yards allowed, and seventh against the pass. In their last five home games, the Browns' offense is averaging just 15.6 points, and they are 42-24 UNDER the total at home against losing teams. Cleveland is 8-21 ATS at home against teams that average 260+ yards passing yards per game and Las Vegas won here last year, 16-6, outgaining the Browns 309-223. I like a low-scoring game anyway, but the Browns have also been hit hard by Covid this past week and could end up playing this one without their top two QBs. Take Las Vegas as a Max Play and also take this game to stay UNDER the total.

Las Vegas has a winning road record with a terrific offense, Top 10 in total yards, seventh in passing behind QB Derek Carr (13 TDs, 2 INTs), #11 in points scored (28.5 points per game). Carr leads the NFL with a 73.1% completion percentage and the Raiders gave the defending champion Chiefs their only loss. NFL teams like the Raiders that average 27+ points per game are 24-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Cleveland's defense has been sloppy, allowing 38, 23, 38, and 34 points the last four games. The offense lost three-time Pro Bowler WR Odell Beckham last week, who is out for the year. That defense is #20 in yards allowed, third-worst in passing yards surrendered (288.1 per game), and fourth-worst in points allowed (31.6 per game). The Browns are 21-41 ATS after allowing 25+ points in two straight games, plus 16-30 ATS against opponents that average 375+ yards per contest. Play Las Vegas.