Cincinnati Bengals vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

The Cincinnati Bengals started the season at 8-0, but have found the going tough each of the last two weeks in losing at home to Houston, and on the road vs. Arizona. Their inability to run the ball is starting to catch up to them as they have failed to run for 100 yards in three of their last four games. St. Louis has become a more run-oriented offense with the emergence of Todd Gurley in the backfield. He has been slowed in recent weeks, but I look for him to establish dominance once again vs. a rather poor Bengals run-stop unit. Cincinnati is allowing 4.5 yards per carry to teams that combine to average just 4.2, and the Rams do run the ball well. Defensively, the Rams are good enough to hold down a Cincinnati offense that is slightly above average, but not as above average as the Rams' stop unit. This will be a shortened game with St. Louis feeding Gurley, so the bundle of points will be big here. The Bengals are just 3-9-1 ATS after allowing 30+ in their previous game. Take the generous points on St. Louis.

On the surface this one looks easy.  The Rams are as bad as it gets and they are off an terrible Monday Night football loss. The Bengals are up-and-coming. How can St. Louis stay close here. Let's look a little deeper. The Bengals went from a 6-2 start and looked playoff-certain, to a disappointing 1-4 in their last five games, putting their playoffs hopes on life support. They now have to pick up the pieces after losing to Houston on the last play of the game 20-19 a week ago. They could be emotionally drained, especially playing against a team that will not get their juices going in the 2-11 Rams. The Bengals defense has taken a giant step back of late. While just one opponent in their first eight games scored over 20 points, all of the last five have gone for 20 or more including Cleveland who scored 20 for the first time in nine weeks against the Bengals defense, and have not gotten there since. Like Cleveland, the Rams have also gone for 20 points just once, but the way the Bengals are going don't be surprised if they get there just like Cleveland did. The Bengals have been a horrible choice as a favorite, producing just a 7-21 ATS mark in their last 28 in this role, including 0-5 ATS in their last five as a road favorite of -3.5 to -10, and they have failed to cover their last four on turf. Under Marvin Lewis, this Bengals team is just 10-19 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range and 2-9 ATS vs. really bad teams like the Rams (teams getting outscored by 10+ points per game). I expect a motivated Rams team looking to show the world they aren't as bad as they appeared on Monday night and I expect them to keep this close. I also like the OVER here. A sure sign of trouble for the Bengals and a high-scoring affair is after allowing 350 yards or more they have played to a 17-5 mark to the OVER in their last 22, and have also now played five straight OVER vs. a losing team. St. Louis is now 20-6 to the OVER at home vs. a team with a winning road record. Play on St. Louis and the OVER.