Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks Point Spread Picks

Seattle is off to a 3-1 start, including 2-0 SU/ATS on the road. They won at Detroit, 37-31, as a +4.5 dog and at the Giants last week, 24-3. The offense is sixth in the NFL in points (27.8 per game) behind QB Geno Smith (5 TDs, one pick). The Seahawks are 70-46 ATS against defenses that allow 350+ yards per game and coach Pete Carroll is 57-35 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bengals come home from a two-game road trek. Cincinnati's offense is 27th in points (16.6 per game), second to last in yards, and 27th on third down (34.29%), while the defense is 21st in yards allowed, 20th in points (22.8 per game given up), and 21st on third down. The Bengals are 26-43 ATS versus defenses that allow 3.5 or fewer yards rushing per carry. And NFL home teams where the line is +3 to -3 are 3-23 ATS after a two-game road trip in Week's 5 through 9. Play Seattle. 

The 2-2 Seattle Seahawks head to Cincinnati to take on the 4-0 Bengals. So this line is about right, eh? Not so fast. The Bengals have become a force on offense at home where they have torched opposing defenses for over 30 points per game in their last 16 here, topping the 40-point mark four times in the process. However, the Seahawks are no slouch on offense, as they have scored 20 or more on the road in 9 of their last 12. Seattle is in a rare road dog situation, but they have risen to the occasion in their last 17 at 11-5-1 ATS. Seattle escaped becoming 1-3 with a controversial call to end their game last week, turning a potential loss into a win. The Bengals may be 4-0, but after limiting Oakland offensively in game one, their 4-0 record has hidden the sins of a defense that has allowed over 400 yards per game since, and over the last three games, that rates out to be the fifth-worst numbers in the league. Their biggest problem has been down and distance on defense, being unfavorable, and opponents have moved the chains successfully 41.9% of the time in the three games. Russell Wilson continues to show why he is an elite QB. He has been sacked 18 times on the season, and has a 12.4% sack rate, highest in the league, but despite six sacks last week, through it all he still went 20-27 for 287 yards. The bottom line here is going to be who gets the stops late in the game, as this should be close, so you have to feel at this time that Seattle is poised to be that team on defense to get it done. The Seahawks pack their best on the road vs. a team with a winning home record at 11-3 ATS in their last 14. Since the arrival of Pete Carroll in Seattle, the Seahawks are 16-5 ATS after two straight games of holding opponents to 17 or less and 6-0 on the road vs. elite offenses (teams averaging 6+ yards per play). Marvin Lewis is 18-29 ATS in Cincy during October. In addition, the total has been topped in four of the last five played in this series and under Carroll, Seattle is 25-15 OVER as an underdog. Grab Seattle as a dog and also play the OVER.

Wow! Did that Bengals-Browns game really happen last week? Did Cleveland, behind Derek Anderson, really roll up 51 points on Cincinnati? Yeah, it happened. And now oddsmakers and the betting public are overracting drastically to one game. All of a sudden the Bengals get no respect, and the total in this game goes to a sky-high 50. Carson and company are getting 3.5 points from a team that lost outright last week as a favorite to Arizona. After an embarrassment like that, we think the Bengals defense comes to play here. Their pride was wounded and they will not lay down again and play that bad two weeks in a row. Let's not forget what this Bengals offense is capable of. Carson Palmer is in the conversation when discussing the league's best quarterback. He has two amazing receivers and a top-tier running back. He threw for 401 yards and six touchdowns last game. He can win you the close games. You could say that Seattle gave away the game last week with their late fumble. But, they were soundly beaten, down by 17 points at one point. Under coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 12-4 ATS off a game in which they scored 30+ points including a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Seattle is just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Last year in Cincinnati road games, the final score did not top 50 once. The Bengals are in fact 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 road games with a total of 46 or higher. Seattle has played 11 games over the last several years with a posted total at home of over 44 and just once did it make it over the total. Unlike Cleveland, the Seahawks won't want to get into a shootout with Cincinnati. They know they are likely in trouble in that kind of game. Coach Holmgren will look to grind it out with Alexander, knowing that a short clock burning game is the most likely road to a Seahawks victory. We love the overreaction to last week's most surprising game and as such, we'll take both Cincinnati and the UNDER here.